The XRP price has always been one of the most debated numbers in crypto. Every cycle, the same arguments pop up again. People pull up charts, run market cap math, and start making bold claims about what’s “realistic” and what’s “impossible.”
But BarriC made a really interesting point in a recent post on X: most XRP price predictions are built on the wrong kind of history. Because XRP has never actually traded in a world where real adoption is happening at scale yet.
What you'll learn 👉
XRP Has Only Ever Traded in a Retail Market
BarriC’s take is pretty simple once you sit with it. The XRP price has only existed inside the same retail-driven environment as every other major altcoin. The usual four-year cycle, Bitcoin halving narratives, bull runs, alt seasons, then brutal bear markets.
Everything has been shaped by exchange speculation and trader psychology. That’s the only framework most people know, so that’s what they use when they talk about price.
And that’s why you constantly hear stuff like: “$1,000 could never happen.” “$10,000 is insane.” “$50,000 isn’t even worth discussing.” But those statements assume XRP will always behave like a retail trading asset.
Most people are making one specific mistake with $XRP.
— BarriC (@B_arri_C) February 9, 2026
They are trying to price the future
using data from a past that has never included real adoption.$XRP has only ever existed inside a retail trading environment.
• 4-year cycles
• Bitcoin halving
• bull market → alt…
The Chart Can’t Price Something That Has Never Happened Before
The deeper point BarriC is making is that there’s no real precedent for what XRP is trying to become.
There has never been a moment in history where a digital asset was fully integrated into global financial infrastructure. Not as a trade, not as a speculative play, but as something banks, institutions, and payment systems actually rely on.
Charts are great at showing speculation, they capture hype cycles, liquidity rotations, fear, greed, and momentum. But they can’t model what happens if an asset becomes part of the financial plumbing itself. That’s a completely different kind of market.
The XRP Price Would Behave Differently in an Infrastructure Era
BarriC’s argument is basically this: once an asset becomes necessary, it stops trading like a meme coin or an alt-season lottery ticket. The XRP price wouldn’t just move because retail is excited, it would move because usage demands it. And markets price necessity differently than speculation.
Something that gets used as a liquidity layer or settlement tool doesn’t follow the same rules as something people only buy to flip later. That’s why he thinks extreme XRP price targets can’t be dismissed so easily with old-cycle logic. Because the “infrastructure chapter” hasn’t happened yet.
Read Also: XRP Price at $10 Dreams or $0.70 Reality? This Chart Maps the Next Move
XRP Predictions Are Still Stuck in the Old World
BarriC isn’t claiming the XRP price is guaranteed to hit some crazy number tomorrow. He’s saying most people are trying to price the future using data from a past that never included real adoption.
So far, XRP has only traded in a retail-driven world. If the infrastructure era ever arrives, the XRP price may start moving by a totally different set of rules. And that’s exactly why the most confident predictions are often the ones least prepared for what comes next.
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