The XRP community is one of the largest in crypto, and it’s known for big, bold price predictions. Some of those calls are pure hype, but others are based on detailed chart analysis. One of the most followed voices in the community, EGRAG CRYPTO, just shared a new long-term chart that lays out three possible scenarios for XRP this cycle: a miss at $18, a hit at $27, or an overshoot to $200.
Unlike many predictions, EGRAG’s work is built on historical price cycles and a regression model that has tracked XRP’s behavior for more than a decade.
What you'll learn 👉
The Regression Model and R-Squared Value
EGRAG’s chart uses linear regression on a logarithmic scale, combined with a 2-standard deviation channel. This essentially creates a price corridor that XRP has respected in previous cycles.
A key metric here is the R-squared value of 0.84754, which indicates a very strong fit between the regression line and XRP’s historical price data. In practical terms, this means about 85% of XRP’s past price moves can be explained by the model, giving it credibility as a forecasting tool.
#XRP – Hit, Miss, or Over Shoot? ( $27, $18 Or $200)💡
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) August 27, 2025
The chart below is based on the monthly time frame and reflects our analysis of hits, misses, and overshoots using linear regression on a log scale. This analysis is grounded in a 2-standard deviation model.
Key Info -… pic.twitter.com/x6M7gEx5Jg
What History Tells Us
Looking back, XRP has shown three distinct behaviors at the upper edge of this regression channel:
- Hits: XRP touched the upper band three times in past cycles, confirming it as a strong technical target.
- Overshoot: In one cycle, XRP didn’t just touch the line – it overshot by a massive 570%.
- Miss: In the 2021 cycle, XRP failed to reach the upper boundary, falling short by about 45%.
The chart also tracks cycle lengths. Cycle 1 lasted 39 bars (1,186 days), Cycle 2 lasted 53 bars (1,614 days), and the current Cycle 3 is now underway with a similar structure. This repeating pattern gives further weight to EGRAG’s analysis.
Another important detail is the 21 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) shown in yellow on the chart. Historically, this line has acted as a guide across cycles, helping XRP find support during long consolidations before major breakouts. The current cycle also shows XRP respecting this moving average, which adds confluence to the regression model.
Read also: XRP Rich List Might Surprise You – How Much Do You Need to Be in the Top Holders?
Current Market Position and Targets
Right now, XRP is hovering around the midpoint of the regression channel, well below the upper boundary. From here, EGRAG lays out three possible outcomes:
- A Hit: XRP climbs directly to the upper band, which would put the price at around $27.
- A Miss (45% short): XRP fails to fully reach the band, peaking around $18.
- An Overshoot (570% above the band): In the most bullish case, XRP could skyrocket toward $200.
EGRAG also notes that because the regression line itself trends upward over time, these targets may rise further if XRP takes longer to reach them.
Final Word
For XRP holders, the scenarios are striking. Even the “miss” case of $18 would still represent a 6x move from today’s price around $3. A direct hit at $27 would mean a 9x gain, while the overshoot case at $200 would be a once-in-a-lifetime rally.
EGRAG’s analysis shows that XRP’s long-term cycles can produce wildly different outcomes – sometimes falling short, sometimes shooting far beyond expectations. With the model showing such a strong historical fit, the XRP Army will be watching closely to see whether this cycle delivers another hit, a miss, or an unforgettable overshoot.
Read also: XRP Gets Major Boost From China
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