Crypto expert Benjamin Cowen believes the ongoing market trend does not define the future of Bitcoin’s dominance against altcoins. He thinks that although BTC’s price has been dropping compared to the alternative cryptocurrencies, the trend will not continue for long. Thus, BTC will maintain its higher market dominance in the long run.
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Historical Patterns and Current Market Dynamics
Examining historical patterns, Cowen points out that ALT/BTC pairs behave as oscillators. He observes that these pairs are currently off their range lows, having rallied from 0.36 to 0.40 over the past week. However, Cowen cautions against premature declarations of an alt season.
“History shows that #ALT / #BTC pairs are oscillators and we still find ourselves well off the range lows,” Cowen tweets. He reminds his followers that the 0.36 level was the lowest ALT/BTC pairs have seen in years.
Drawing parallels to 2019, Cowen recalls a similar scenario. Back then, ALT/BTC pairs bounced from 0.35 to 0.42 before ultimately rolling over to 0.25. This historical precedent suggests that the current bounce may not necessarily indicate a reversal in Bitcoin dominance.
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Bitcoin Dominance and Market Cycles
Cowen emphasizes the importance of considering broader market cycles. He highlights that rallies in ALT/BTC pairs have occurred in post-halving years during previous cycles. If this pattern holds, the next major altcoin rally might not happen until 2025, rather than 2024.
“Do you see the massive green yearly candles for #ALT / #BTC pairs in prior cycles? They both occurred in post-halving years. That would correspond to 2025 if it repeats again, not 2024,” Cowen explains.
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Show more +Factors Influencing Market Dynamics
The analyst maintains that ALT/BTC pairs will continue to decline until certain macroeconomic conditions change. Specifically, Cowen believes that a shift in Federal Reserve policies could be a catalyst for altcoin performance.
“My view remains the same – #ALT / #BTC pairs will continue to bleed until the Fed cuts rates and/or QE returns,” Cowen states. He advises against attempting to front-run this process, noting that the current cycle has repeatedly shown Bitcoin dominance exceeding expectations.
While many in the crypto community have been quick to call the top on Bitcoin dominance, Cowen remains steadfast in his analysis. He points out that Bitcoin dominance continues to hold above its bull market support band, rarely dipping below it since the beginning of 2023.
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