What Happens to Altcoins After Bitcoin (BTC) Halving? The Current Market Situation Is Unique – Expert

As the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event draws near, scheduled for April 19th, 2024, the crypto community is discussing about its potential impact on altcoins, or cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin. In this article, we’ll explore the historical trends and speculations surrounding the halving’s effects on the altcoin market.

Crypto influencer Crypto Nova (@CryptoGirlNova) recently shared her insights on this topic in an X thread. For those unfamiliar, a Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs roughly every four years, where the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks is cut in half, effectively reducing the new supply of Bitcoin entering the market.

Looking back at the 2016 halving, Crypto Nova observed that it took around 7-8 months for the altcoin market, excluding the top 10 cryptocurrencies, to enter an “up-only state” after the event. This period was marked by a relatively stagnant market for altcoins.

In contrast, the 2020 halving painted a different picture. The altcoin market experienced no significant downtime and continued its upward trajectory shortly after the halving, a trend that accelerated in 2021.

Crypto Nova attributes this difference to the fact that in 2016, altcoins were not yet a significant presence, with Bitcoin dominating the crypto landscape with over 95% market dominance. It was only in 2017 that the market for cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin started to emerge.

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As for the 2024 halving, Crypto Nova believes the situation is unique. The crypto market cycle appears to be ahead of schedule, with modest gains already being observed in the overall market capitalization. Unlike previous halvings, where a cooldown period followed, Crypto Nova expects no significant market pause this time around.

“The cycle has already started,” Crypto Nova states, suggesting that the crypto market has already transitioned from a bear to a bull phase. With cryptocurrencies gradually gaining mainstream media attention again, she predicts that the upward momentum is unlikely to halt abruptly.

However, Crypto Nova acknowledges that the timeline for the bull market might be shorter than the traditional 1.5 years, potentially lasting around one year, given the accelerated cycle. This prediction is based on the average length of previous bull markets and the market’s current advanced state.

Furthermore, the introduction of a Bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) has introduced cryptocurrencies to uncharted waters, and Crypto Nova believes that the magnitude of bull and bear phases might diminish over time. As Bitcoin’s liquidity increases, its volatility is expected to decrease, potentially leading to smaller corrections and rises.

In conclusion, while historical patterns provide some guidance, the 2024 Bitcoin halving presents a unique scenario influenced by the evolving crypto landscape. Crypto Nova’s analysis suggests that the altcoin market is unlikely to experience an extended cooldown phase, with the next 12 months potentially being favorable for growth. However, the exact timeline and magnitude of the bull market remain uncertain, and the crypto community will continue to reevaluate as events unfold.

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Temitope Olatunji
Temitope Olatunji

Temitope is a seasoned writer with over four years of experience. He specializes in Web3 and FinTech topics and enjoys creating content in these areas. He holds both a bachelor's and master's degree in Linguistics. When not writing, he trades forex and plays video games.