XRP is probably the strongest community in crypto. It’s backed not only by crypto investors, but also pro-Ripple lawyers who have been following the XRP vs SEC case for years.
However, today, we decided to ask AI to predict possible outcomes of the XRP vs SEC Case. Of course, if you want AI to predict anything with a high level of probability, you need to give it context in detail and we did this, of course.
What you'll learn 👉
Potential Outcomes of the Ripple vs SEC Legal Battle
When analyzing the Ripple vs SEC case, three primary resolution scenarios emerge, each with its own likelihood of occurrence.
A settlement with XRP classified as a commodity appears most probable (50% chance). In this scenario, the SEC and Ripple would reach a private agreement where XRP receives similar classification to Ethereum – as a commodity rather than a security. This outcome would provide much-needed regulatory clarity for both Ripple and the broader cryptocurrency industry while allowing the SEC to conclude the case without suffering a complete defeat.
The second most likely outcome (35% chance) involves Ripple negotiating a significantly reduced fine from the original $125 million penalty, while gaining permission to sell XRP to institutional investors under reasonable regulatory oversight. This aligns with the SEC’s evolving approach under new leadership and follows the pattern of recent case settlements showing increased regulatory flexibility.
Less likely but still possible (15% chance) is a scenario where the SEC settles while maintaining some restrictions on Ripple’s institutional sales. This compromise would enable both parties to claim partial victories – Ripple avoids further legal battles, while the SEC maintains some authority despite the earlier court ruling against aspects of its case.
Read also: How Many XRP Tokens Do You Need to Become a Millionaire? Crypto Veteran Weighs In
Why the SEC’s Position Has Weakened
The SEC’s position in this case has grown much weaker over time. Back in 2023, Judge Torres dealt them a major blow by ruling that XRP sales on secondary markets aren’t securities transactions. This undercut a big part of their argument against Ripple.
We’re also seeing the SEC settle more easily with crypto companies lately. Their cases against Coinbase and Kraken show they’re backing off from the tough approach they once had. Pushing for a total win against Ripple now would go against this newer, softer trend.
Leadership changes matter too. Gary Gensler, known for his harsh crypto stance, is gone. Acting Chair Mark Uyeda seems more open to finding middle ground with crypto firms. The SEC doesn’t want to risk getting an even worse court ruling that could hurt them in future cases.
UPDATE: *two* SEC sources believe @Ripple case is very close to ending. Some expected outcomes:
— Andrew (@AP_Abacus) March 17, 2025
• “expect $XRP to get serious commodity consideration.”
• “greatly reduced fine; GREATLY reduced”
• “new leadership knows this case and how they handle it is a big deal;…
The longer this drags on, the worse it gets for the SEC. The crypto industry needs clear rules, and endless court battles don’t help anyone. If the SEC keeps fighting, Congress or the CFTC might step in and limit the SEC’s power over cryptocurrencies. The SEC also has other big cases to handle against companies like Binance and Coinbase.
People inside the SEC have reportedly leaked that a settlement is close and XRP might be classified as a commodity. This is a huge shift from their original position. The SEC likely realizes they’re standing on shaky legal ground and would rather settle than face an even bigger defeat in court.
For XRP holders, these developments suggest better days might be ahead, with the regulatory fog finally starting to clear around one of crypto’s longest-running legal battles.
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