Top BTC Analyst Benjamin Cowen Notices “Recurring Patterns” While Cracking Bitcoin’s On-Chain Code
Benjamin Cowen, a renowned crypto analyst, offers a fresh perspective. In his latest YouTube video titled “Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis: MinerCap To ThermoCap Ratio”, Cowen delves into the intricacies of Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics, specifically focusing on the MinerCap to ThermoCap Ratio.
What you'll learn 👉
What is the MinerCap to ThermoCap Ratio?
Before diving into the implications of this ratio, it’s crucial to understand what it represents. According to Cowen, the MinerCap or Miner Capitalization is the sum of balances of all mining entities multiplied by the price of Bitcoin on a given day.
On the other hand, ThermoCap is the all-time cumulative miner revenue, calculated by taking the running sum of daily miner revenue in USD. The MinerCap to ThermoCap Ratio is simply MinerCap divided by ThermoCap.
Cowen argues that on-chain analysis, while not foolproof, can offer valuable insights into market trends. The MinerCap to ThermoCap Ratio is no exception.
The ratio has shown diminishing returns from one cycle to another, aligning with the broader narrative of Bitcoin experiencing diminishing returns in successive bull markets. Interestingly, the ratio also indicates diminishing losses, suggesting a more stable market environment over time.
One of the most intriguing observations Cowen makes is the recurring pattern of this ratio hitting a low and then retesting it later.
For instance, in 2015, the ratio corresponded to a “double bottom,” and in 2020, it corresponded to a “higher low.” These patterns could potentially serve as indicators for future market behavior.
As the crypto market matures, Cowen emphasizes the importance of incorporating new metrics into analyses to keep perspectives fresh. He mentions that he plans to introduce one or two new charts every week or couple of weeks to provide a more holistic view of the market.
Conclusion
While the MinerCap to ThermoCap Ratio is not a silver bullet for predicting market trends, it offers a nuanced way to view the crypto landscape. As Benjamin Cowen aptly puts it, it’s “just one more indicator to add to your toolkit.”
We recommend eToro
Wide range of assets: cryptocurrencies alongside other investment products such as stocks and ETFs.
Copy trading: allows users to copy the trades of leading traders, for free.
User-friendly: eToro’s web-based platform and mobile app are user-friendly and easy to navigate.
