Kaspa price just got rejected at $0.040 for the second time in three months. The same level that capped price in mid-March.
This time, the sell-off was sharp – Kaspa price sliced below both the 30-day and 90-day moving averages in a single move, dropping to roughly $0.0325.
The trader behind the chart says this is a realistic prediction, not hype. Let’s break down the chart, then look at major Kaspa news that could change the narrative.
What you'll learn 👉
Kaspa Chart Analysis: Rejection at $0.040, MAs in Jeopardy
The attached chart shows Kaspa’s price action from late February to May 23, 2026.
Key observations:
Price action:
Kaspa rallied from lows near $0.028 in early May to test $0.040 twice. The first test was in mid-March, the second on May 22-23. Both times, sellers stepped in aggressively.
The rejection candle on the second test was accompanied by a sharp drop to $0.0325, erasing most of the May gains.
Moving averages:
The 30-day MA (blue) and 90-day MA (orange) had just curled into a bullish cross near $0.0335.
That cross is now in question because price fell below both MAs. If price does not reclaim $0.0335 quickly, the cross could fail, turning into a bearish signal.
The rejection candle saw noticeably higher volume than the surrounding quiet tape. That indicates selling pressure was real, not just a few weak hands. Institutional or whale selling may have triggered the move.
The analyst notes that $0.040 is a major resistance level that has capped price twice in 90 days.
The drop puts the MA bullish cross at risk. The level to reclaim now is the 30-day MA (around $0.0335). If Kaspa can get back above that, the bullish structure could be repaired.
If not, further downside toward $0.030 or $0.028 is likely.
Other Kaspa News – DeFi and Major Upgrade
Kaskad, a decentralized lending protocol forked from Aave, is launching its public mainnet on the Kaspa network.
It will allow users to borrow stablecoins (USDT, USDC) using KAS as collateral. This marks the start of DeFi on the high-speed BlockDAG.
The launch includes a $250,000 initial liquidity pool and a token (KSKD) listing on MEXC. Launch date is May 24, 2026.
The Toccata hard fork, targeting mainnet activation between June 5–20, 2026, is Kaspa’s most significant upgrade to date.
It will transform the network from a payments-focused chain to a programmable Layer 1 by introducing native KRC-20 tokens, covenant programming via SilverScript, and zero-knowledge verification opcodes (CoinMarketCap).
This opens the door for smart contracts, dApps, and DeFi on Kaspa.
Read also: ChatGPT Predicts KAS Price if Kaspa Is Listed on Coinbase and Robinhood in 2026
Our Opinion on All This Kaspa Price Prediction
Kaspa’s double rejection at $0.040 is a real technical concern. The market had two chances to break out, and both failed.
The fact that volume exploded on the sell-off indicates that large holders used the rally to reduce exposure. The bullish MA cross is now at risk.
However, the fundamentals are improving.
Kaskad’s launch brings actual DeFi utility to Kaspa – borrowing, lending, and yield. The Toccata hard fork is a massive upgrade that will turn Kaspa into a full-fledged programmable blockchain.
These events could attract new users and developers, creating demand for KAS over time.
The disconnect between price action and fundamentals is frustrating but not unusual. Markets often sell the news of upcoming upgrades.
The realistic prediction here is that the Kaspa price may trade between $0.030 and $0.036 for the next few weeks, grinding sideways until the Toccata hard fork is closer.
A successful upgrade and DeFi growth could push price back toward $0.040 in July. A failure to reclaim MAs could see $0.028 again.
For traders, the risk-reward is neutral. Wait for a reclaim of $0.0335-$0.034 before adding longs.
For long-term believers, the $0.030-$0.032 range is a reasonable accumulation zone.
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