Crypto lawyer Fred Rispoli has weighed in on the latest twist in the long-running Ripple vs SEC case, offering a detailed breakdown of what could come next. His main point? Despite recent leadership changes, the SEC is still acting like the same old agency – and a settlement is now the most likely outcome.
Rispoli believes the SEC and Ripple will eventually settle their appeals for the agreed-upon reduced penalty, likely around $50 million. This would leave Judge Torres’ previous summary judgment and permanent injunction in place.
According to Rispoli, the SEC will also likely communicate – either publicly or behind the scenes – that Ripple is free to continue its business operations, as long as they remain transparent and avoid the kind of institutional sales that were previously ruled as violations.
“I thought Judge Torres would grant the first motion,” Rispoli said, referring to Ripple and the SEC’s recent joint request to soften the penalties and move on. Instead, Torres denied it, reiterating the SEC’s own words from earlier filings that accused Ripple of “reckless” and “egregious” conduct. Her refusal, Rispoli argues, shows frustration with how long the case dragged on – or possibly even political motivations.
Once that first motion was denied, Rispoli says it became clear that both Ripple and the SEC would need to present stronger arguments in their follow-up. But they didn’t. No SEC commissioners provided declarations to explain the agency’s change of stance. “The parties utterly failed,” Rispoli noted, adding that the SEC seems unwilling to publicly admit any wrongdoing from the Gensler era, despite its controversial handling of other crypto enforcement cases like Debt Box.
SEC v. Ripple Update: This is a long post on my thoughts here but the TLDR is: "Welcome to the new SEC, for now more or less the same as the last one." And: Ripple and SEC will settle the appeal for the reduced, agreed upon amount and leave the Torres judgment in place, while the… https://t.co/9y9o4M4uBW
— Fred Rispoli (@freddyriz) June 26, 2025
This unwillingness to change, Rispoli says, shows that the culture at the SEC hasn’t really shifted. “The SEC is going to do what it has done for decades: protect its own regardless of the administration in charge,” he wrote.
Rispoli also doubts the SEC will drop its appeal in a way that would help Ripple. While the agency has said it will not pursue the appeal, he thinks it won’t go so far as to simply abandon it completely and allow Ripple’s legal position to go unopposed. In his view, both parties will ultimately settle and avoid further courtroom battles.
One key question is how the injunction affects Ripple going forward. Rispoli says it won’t impact XRP trading on secondary markets and won’t block a potential XRP ETF. The injunction only matters if the SEC chooses to enforce it, which seems unlikely under current conditions. Still, Ripple might need the SEC to issue waivers or exemptions to remove certain limitations – something Rispoli says the agency has the power to do.
Interestingly, Ripple’s legal chief Stuart Alderoty referred to “historic institutional sales” when commenting on the ruling. That language, Rispoli notes, signals a shift. Ripple seems to be distancing itself from the practices Judge Torres criticized and is making it clear that its current institutional sales don’t fall into the same category.
In short, Rispoli believes both sides are now preparing to move on. The SEC gets to preserve face with the injunction and a reduced fine. Ripple gets clarity on how to operate going forward, without further legal overhang. But at its core, the case shows that real change at the SEC – especially around crypto – is still far off.
“The TLDR is: ‘Welcome to the new SEC, for now more or less the same as the last one,’” Rispoli said.
Read also: Stellar Holder Claims USDC on XRP ‘Is a Trap’ – Here’s Why
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