XRP entered 2025 with some of the highest expectations in the market. After Donald Trump won the U.S. election in November 2024, XRP surged 283%, then added another 52% across December and January. By early 2025, the asset reached $3.4, and many analysts began projecting aggressive upside targets — $10, $15, even $27. But instead of continuing the momentum, XRP stalled. As of December 8, the token trades around $2.08, up just 0.43% for the entire year.
According to market commentator Zach Rector, this slowdown wasn’t random. In a recent breakdown, he explained that three major events pushed XRP’s bullish timeline into 2026. Rector made clear that his price targets haven’t changed, but the catalysts he expected were delayed in ways few anticipated.
What you'll learn 👉
Reason #1: The SEC Lawsuit Dragged Deep Into 2025
Rector said the biggest anchor on XRP this year was the lingering SEC lawsuit against Ripple. Most investors believed the case would end in 2021 or 2022, but instead it lingered far longer. The process officially wrapped in August 2025, not because of new legal arguments, but due to a procedural delay. Outgoing SEC Chair Gary Gensler filed a last-minute appeal just five days before leaving office, keeping the case alive for several more months.
The lawsuit’s extension meant the market continued operating under legal uncertainty for most of the year. According to Rector, this single factor prevented large buyers, institutions, and market makers from engaging more aggressively.
Market Expert Reveals 3 Reasons $XRP Failed to Pump in 2025. #Ripple🧵🧵🧵 pic.twitter.com/yuFTfxxRqm
— TheCryptoBasic (@thecryptobasic) December 8, 2025
Reason #2: XRP Spot ETFs Arrived Too Late to Fuel a Rally
The second major factor was the timing of XRP spot exchange-traded funds. Because the SEC case was ongoing, no issuer could launch an ETF. Once the lawsuit ended in August, six of the seven issuers immediately updated their S-1 filings, but the rollout still faced delays.
The U.S. government shutdown temporarily froze regulatory operations, and issuers had to rely on a workaround to start the required 20-day countdown. By the time the ETFs finally went live in November 2025, the market had already lost momentum. Rector believes that if the ETFs had launched mid-year, inflows could have pushed XRP into a much stronger breakout.
Despite the setback, Rector still holds long-term bullish expectations. He believes XRP can make a run toward $7, experience a pullback, and then move into the $15–$20 range, but now on a 2026 timeline.
Reason #3: Congress Delayed the Crypto Clarity Act
Rector called the failure to pass the Clarity Act the most important roadblock of all. Without a federal market structure bill, U.S. banks and financial institutions remain hesitant to use assets like XRP at scale. These firms want clear rules for token classification, custody, securities requirements, and platform operations.
While institutions outside the U.S. continue using Ripple’s on-demand liquidity (ODL) system to settle tens of billions in payments annually, American institutions are still waiting for regulatory certainty.
Rector highlighted three major political disagreements holding the bill back:
- Disputes over how to regulate yield-bearing stablecoins
- Proposed conflict-of-interest rules that could limit business activity tied to the president’s family
- Pushback from traditional financial firms seeking to regulate DeFi developers as if they operated centralized exchanges
These unresolved issues effectively stalled the Clarity Act until at least early 2026; a timeline other industry analysts also expect.
Rector’s analysis paints a picture of a market that wasn’t lacking enthusiasm, it was lacking regulatory clarity and timely catalysts. With the lawsuit finally resolved, ETFs launched, and a regulatory bill expected next year, he believes the structural barriers that held XRP down in 2025 may soon lift.
For now, XRP remains range-bound. But if these three roadblocks clear in 2026, the asset may finally get the conditions necessary to test the long-awaited higher targets.
Read also: New Criticism Hits XRP: Analysts Call Ripple’s Network Is “Centralized in Every Way”
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