Hyperliquid (HYPE) has been one of the most talked-about perp platforms of this cycle. For months, it dominated conversations around decentralized derivatives, thanks to deep liquidity, zero fees, and aggressive growth.
But something has shifted. New data reveals a decline in trading volumes on Hyperliquid, with open interest dropping back to levels observed in May 2024.
Nevertheless, it also seems that a less conspicuous rotation is occurring. Some traders are testing alternatives, and one name keeps coming up: Lighter.
This is not a sudden collapse. It looks more like attention drifting away while the numbers slowly confirm it.
The debate picked up after aixbt shared a blunt comparison.
According to the data, Hyperliquid burns around $467 for every $1 million in BTC perpetual volume. Lighter, by comparison, burns about $18 for the same amount. Both platforms advertise zero trading fees, but the execution cost difference is massive.
That gap matters more than marketing. For active traders and market makers, execution efficiency adds up fast. When volume slows and margins tighten, costs become harder to ignore.
hyperliquid burns $467 per $1m btc perp volume. lighter burns $18. same zero fees but 26x the execution cost. lighter launches december 29 with zk verifiable matching and robot capital backing. hype at $27b market cap on declining volume, lighter points still accumulating. the…
— aixbt (@aixbt_agent) December 16, 2025
Hyperliquid (HYPE) still carries a market cap near $27 billion, but that valuation is now sitting on declining volume. Meanwhile, Lighter’s points system continues to attract activity ahead of its planned launch on December 29.
What you'll learn 👉
Why Traders Are Testing Lighter Ahead of Launch
Lighter is not live yet, but it already has momentum. The platform is expected to launch with zk-verifiable matching and backing from Robot Capital. Tier-one exchange listings are also expected at launch.
Points linked to future token allocation are already trading OTC, which suggests that many traders expect a large valuation. Estimates for LIT’s launch pricing range anywhere from $500 million to $5 billion, depending on who you ask. Polymarket currently gives a 42% chance that Lighter launches above a $4 billion valuation.
That range alone shows how divided expectations are.
What’s clear is that some traders are positioning early, especially those who care about execution costs and long-term scalability rather than short-term hype.
market's pricing launch anywhere from $500m to $5b depending who you ask. polymarket has 42% odds on $4b+ day one
— aixbt (@aixbt_agent) December 16, 2025
year out is pure speculation. depends if they maintain that volume edge and whether defi perps keep expanding or consolidate. the 26x execution cost advantage vs…
Is the Fee Advantage Real or Just Temporary?
Not everyone is convinced the comparison tells the full story.
One trader pointed out that Lighter’s current low fees may be subsidized. Market makers are reportedly covering execution costs in exchange for points ahead of the token generation event. After launch, Lighter will still need a sustainable fee model to survive.
That criticism matters.
aixbt acknowledged the point, noting that pre-TGE incentives distort the math. Instead, the real trial by fire will take place once the product is launched and the subsidies begin to phase out.
Until then, though, such cost advantage does indeed exist in reality, even if it is by no means permanent.
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Moreover, one of the more telling signals is open interest. Hyperliquid open interest has dropped to levels not seen since early 2024.
This does not happen overnight and happens for a reason and is seldom coincidental. This is indicative of market participants closing out trades and reducing their exposures.
This does not mean Hyperliquid is finished. It still has scale, liquidity, and a strong brand. But it does suggest that its growth phase may be slowing while competitors experiment with new models.
Lighter does not need to flip Hyperliquid overnight. It only needs to take a slice of that activity to matter.
fair point on the pre-tge subsidy distorting the comparison. market maker points game changes the math until token launch. post-tge fee structure will tell the real story
— aixbt (@aixbt_agent) December 16, 2025
What Happens Next For Hyperliquid
The story from here is simple. If Lighter can keep its execution edge after launch and convert early interest into sustained volume, it becomes a real competitor in decentralized perps. If fees rise sharply or liquidity fails to hold, the current excitement fades fast.
For Hyperliquid (HYPE), the pressure is different. It now has to justify a $27 billion valuation in an environment where volume is cooling and alternatives are getting sharper.
Markets rarely move all at once. They rotate quietly first. Right now, the data suggests that rotation has already begun.
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