Intriguing analysis indicates Bitcoin’s bear slump may be nearing its halfway point, as the cryptocurrency’s market cycles show eerie similarities.
In a recent tweet, crypto analyst Miles Deutscher highlighted that in Bitcoin’s last major market cycle, the peak-to-trough decline lasted 51 weeks. This was followed by 96 weeks of accumulation and sideways price action.
Deutscher notes that the current cycle has also seen 51 weeks elapse from the peak of around $69,000 to recent lows under $17,000. Bitcoin has now spent 48 weeks in a sideways trading range, potentially putting it at the exact halfway point of this expected accumulation phase.
If these patterns align, it suggests Bitcoin is adhering to past market cycle timeframes. The 2013 bear market found a cycle bottom at 48 weeks, while 2017–2018 saw a 53-week elapse from peak to trough. This offers hope that the current slump may be maturing.
However, analysts caution that macroeconomic conditions are different this cycle, with record inflation and interest rate hikes creating an uncertain backdrop. The next Bitcoin halving also remains far in 2024, limiting mining rewards pressure on prices in the interim.
Whether historical cycles precisely repeat or not, Bitcoin’s extended period of low volatility consolidation hints the bottoming process is very likely underway. For weary bulls, that could mean this grueling bear may turn bullish again sooner than they think.
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