Crypto market had a very strong start of the week with Bitcoin pumping to over $88k and Ethereum to almost $2.1k – both 2-week peaks.
However, all gains are now mostly gone as Bitcoin and Ethereum are back to their last week levels of below $86k and $2k respectively.
Popular YouTube channel ‘Thinking Crypto’ released a viral video yesterday that featured a guy from Santiment, and they analysed the situation around Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and XRP. There were a few hints there that this week’s pump “didn’t have legs” so let’s dive in.
What you'll learn 👉
Bitcoin Analysis
Bitcoin’s market performance tells an interesting story. Just a few weeks ago, the market was extremely bearish. Things started to turn around on March 9, which analysts see as a key bottom signal. The current sentiment has shifted to neutral, with a slight bullish edge.
Over the past week, the Bitcoin price is up about 7.5%. However, utility metrics paint a more nuanced picture. Transaction volumes and active addresses have slightly declined. Looking at wallet activity, 30-day active wallets are up 3.5%, while 1-year wallets show a 4.5% increase. These numbers suggest the market is in neutral territory, far from an overheated state.
Whale activity provides more insight. After a quiet February, large Bitcoin holders have started accumulating again. Investors with wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have been steadily increasing their positions. This trend is particularly interesting because whales were buying even as the price was declining, which could be a bullish signal.
Stablecoin metrics offer another perspective. Tether’s supply on exchanges has dropped from around $45 billion to $40 billion. USDC saw a recent supply spike but has since retracted. While lower stablecoin reserves might reduce immediate market liquidity, it’s not necessarily a strict bearish indicator.
Ethereum Analysis
Ethereum shows a similar complex pattern. The cryptocurrency is up about 10% over the past week. However, key metrics tell a different story. Transaction volume and circulation are declining, and ETH wallets are still down around 29% on average.
This underperformance could set the stage for a potential “regression to the mean” scenario. Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metrics suggest there’s room for upward movement. Funding rates and short positions are also worth noting. A spike in shorts could potentially lead to liquidations, driving prices up.
There’s also hype about a potential Ethereum ETF with staking. Major players like Fidelity have filed, which could be a significant bullish catalyst if approved by the SEC. The current slightly negative sentiment has historically preceded upward price movements.
Solana Analysis
Solana had a major boost from BlackRock’s involvement. The tokenized fund moving to the Solana blockchain caused a massive surge in sentiment. Social media reaction was overwhelmingly positive, with a 10:1 positive to negative ratio – the highest in over a year.
Just in: Blackrock’s BUIDL fund is launching on Solana!@Securitize brings the largest yield-bearing tokenized treasury to Solana 🧵pic.twitter.com/Wda6s4FQ3r
— Solana (@solana) March 25, 2025
The meme coin ecosystem tells another part of Solana’s story. After peaking in late 2024, meme coin activity dropped sharply by February 2025. Liquidity from altcoins was redirected to meme coins, creating market volatility. Analysts expect meme coins to return later in the bull cycle after initial market corrections.
XRP Analysis
XRP has had quite a run. The XRP price pumped from around $0.50 to $2.45 with a 400% market cap increase in just five months. Sentiment is slightly positive, though not extreme.
Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metrics show interesting trends. Previously, wallets were up 115-134%, but things have calmed down. 30-day wallets are now down 0.6%, while 1-year wallets remain up 42%. Analysts see this as potentially creating an ideal buying opportunity.
Whale activity tells another part of the story. High-value transactions (over $1 million) have dropped from 500-700 to around 120 per day. However, whales holding over 1 million XRP have increased their holdings from 41.7 billion in December 2022 to 46.4 billion now – an 11.1% increase.
The Ripple vs. SEC case has also been officially settled, with Ripple paying $50 million. Historically, lawsuit mentions aligned with short-term price peaks, but this resolution might have long-term bullish implications.
Read also: Ripple Wins, ETFs Coming, So Why XRP Price Hasn’t Exploded Yet?
Bearish Clues
Several warning signs are clearly visible from the above market analysis:
Declining On-Chain Activity: Both Bitcoin and Ethereum showed lower transaction volumes, falling circulation, and decreased active addresses. This divergence between price rise and weakening fundamentals suggests the rally might not be fully supported by real usage.
Overheated Sentiment: Bitcoin reached its highest sentiment in six weeks, described as a “short-term FOMO spike”. Solana’s sentiment was at an all-time high. These euphoric spikes often precede market corrections.
MVRV Metrics: XRP wallets were up over 100% at one point. Ethereum wallets still show significant unrealized losses, meaning some investors might sell as prices rise.
Whale Inactivity: XRP whale wallets were much less active compared to earlier bullish phases. Fewer large transactions suggested less conviction from big players.
ETF Speculation: Rumors about ETFs for Ethereum, Solana, and XRP were presented as potential catalysts but not confirmed. This introduces a “buy the rumor, sell the news” risk.
Market Structure: Despite recent gains, the market remains in a “neutral zone” – not extremely bullish or bearish. This lack of strong confirmation means prices could be drifting on sentiment and vulnerable to sudden changes.
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