ASTER officially launched on September 21 and wasted no time making headlines. Within days, it surged to highs near $2.43, fueled by hype around perpetual DEX tokens and aggressive trader demand.
That launch momentum, however, quickly ran into profit-taking. By the end of September, ASTER price had shed about 25% from its peak, settling near $1.68 at the start of October.
The sharp correction was not unexpected. A 1,896% 10-day gain left ASTER highly exposed to traders locking in profits. At the same time, external factors piled on. BitMEX CEO Stephan Lutz publicly criticized perp DEX reward structures as unsustainable, a comment that stung new entrants like ASTER the most.
Meanwhile, competition intensified when Justin Sun’s HTX exchange launched SunPerp, a rival product with 20x leverage and multiple pairs. This diverted some liquidity, leaving ASTER’s daily volumes down 30% compared to launch week.
In short, September was a whirlwind debut: ASTER exploded out of the gate, peaked fast, and is now working through its first major correction.
Market Indicators
Despite the pullback, ASTER price is still heavily traded, with its 24-hour volumes showing resilience. The RSI has cooled from overbought territory but remains in a neutral zone, suggesting the token isn’t oversold yet and could still drift lower if selling continues.
Open interest has declined slightly, reflecting cautious positioning among derivatives traders.
The MACD shows weakening bullish momentum, with the histogram slipping back into negative territory in late September.
Meanwhile, net long positions have dropped, while shorts have inched higher, pointing to a more defensive stance among active traders. The Fear & Greed Index sitting at 42 out of 100 also tells us that market sentiment remains cautious rather than speculative.
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ASTER Price Short-Term Outlook for October
October brings both opportunity and risk for ASTER. On one hand, it has strong liquidity and remains at the center of the perpetual DEX narrative, a sector that continues to see billions in daily volumes.
On the other, the big overhang is the upcoming token unlock on October 17, when 183 million ASTER (worth about $325M) will be released, roughly 11% of its total market cap.
If ASTER price can hold the $1.60–$1.65 support level and ride out the unlock without a massive sell wave, it has some probability of stabilizing and even pushing up towards the $2.00 level.
But if sell pressure picks up, especially from early airdrop holders with unlocked tokens, the price might dip to $1.40 or lower before buyers return.
The short-term outlook is bearish at present. ASTER needs to prove it can withstand external criticism, defend its market share against SunPerp, and weather its unlock event. If it manages all three, October could still turn into a consolidation phase that sets up the next leg higher later this year.
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