Here’s What Could Happen to Bitcoin Price After Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech
Bitcoin has had a powerful week, with the BTC price climbing more than 22% and reaching $81,000. The Bitcoin price is now at $79,180.88 after the US Treasury doubled its long-term bond buyback plan, moving the 10- to 30-year auction cap from $2 billion to $4 billion.
The move briefly pushed long-term Treasury yields and the dollar lower, giving scarce assets such as Bitcoin a fresh boost.
The BTC price has climbed roughly 23% to 27% into the high $70,000s, supported by ETF inflows and more than $4 billion in crypto short liquidations. With Jackson Hole ahead and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh due to speak Friday, the next major move in the Bitcoin price could depend on how he addresses inflation, rates and liquidity.
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Why Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Could Decide the Next Bitcoin Price Move
The crypto rally has reached a point where monetary-policy expectations matter more than ever. Coin Bureau noted that crypto greed has climbed to 74/100, its highest level in almost 11 months.
The rally began after Treasury bond buybacks pushed yields and the dollar lower, then more than $4 billion in crypto shorts were liquidated, accelerating the move toward $80,000.
Crypto’s rally is now at Warsh’s mercy.
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) August 25, 2026
Bitcoin enters Jackson Hole week near $80K after surging 28% in August.
Crypto GREED has climbed to 74/100, its highest level in nearly 11 months.
The rally began when Treasury bond buybacks pushed yields and the dollar lower.
Over $4B… pic.twitter.com/4AZ4xzbh4c
There is another liquidity angle in play. Reports that the Treasury could draw from its nearly $1 trillion cash account have added to expectations for more money to enter financial markets.
Before Warsh speaks, investors will also get fresh US data, including Core PCE inflation and preliminary GDP. Core PCE is expected at 0.2% month-on-month, compared with 0.1% previously, and preliminary GDP is forecast at 1.5%.
The Fed backdrop is mixed. Four of the Fed’s 12 regional banks pushed for a higher discount rate in July, but policymakers voted 9-3 to keep the main policy rate unchanged. That split makes Warsh’s comments especially important for the Bitcoin price.
🚨SCOOP: Four of the Fed’s 12 regional banks pushed to raise the discount rate in July, signaling concern over inflation.
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) August 25, 2026
The proposals were rejected as Fed policymakers voted 9-3 to keep the main policy rate unchanged, exposing a growing split over the path ahead. pic.twitter.com/0FoF3440IG
A dovish message could reinforce expectations for easier monetary conditions, giving the Bitcoin price room to test higher resistance. A hawkish message could push yields and the dollar higher, putting pressure on risk assets.
News Helping the Bitcoin Price Today
US spot Bitcoin ETFs are close to $100 billion in assets under management, reaching $98.56 billion after $2.72 billion of inflows in August. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $1.33 billion of weekly inflows, and total ETF turnover reached $22.1 billion last week. That provides a measurable source of demand behind the Bitcoin price.
The BTC price also briefly crossed $81,000, reaching a three-month high after the Treasury announced the larger long-term bond buybacks. Bill Miller IV also pointed to capital moving out of the AI trade and into crypto. The risk is that the Fear & Greed Index has reached 81, putting the market in Extreme Greed territory after the rapid advance.
Bitcoin’s network fundamentals also remain healthy. Bitdeer Technologies agreed to add about 1.93 EH/s of mining capacity at a 28-megawatt wind-powered Texas site from September. That does not create an immediate price catalyst, but it adds more computing power to the network and shows continued investment in Bitcoin mining infrastructure.
Here’s What the Bitcoin Chart Is Showing
We had a look at the daily chart, and the key level is the $78,000 area. The BTC price spent weeks below this zone before the latest rally pushed price through it. The market is now trading above that level, giving bulls a clear area to defend.
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The next major resistance is around $82,800. That level capped the May rally and is the first major test above the current price. A daily close above $82,800 would open the door toward the next major resistance near $98,300, which is marked by the orange line on the chart.
The structure below price also gives traders clear invalidation levels. The first support is around $74,000-$75,000, followed by the $62,200 area. If the Bitcoin price loses $62,200, the next major support on the chart is close to $59,000.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Three Paths After Jackson Hole
Here’s how this could play out.
Best case:
Warsh sounds dovish at Jackson Hole, and Bitcoin closes a day above $82,800. If buyers push past that line, the next stop is probably $90,000. After that, it would have to test the bigger wall at $98,300. From where we are now, around $79,180, that top target would be a 24% jump.
Middle case:
$82,800 holds as resistance. The Bitcoin price fails to break it and drifts back down toward $78,000, the level it just broke out from. If that floor holds, we could see BTC bounce around in a range, say $76,000 to $82,800, until something new pushes it one way or the other. The overall recovery stays intact, but there’s no real move toward $98,300 yet.
Worst case:
Warsh sounds hawkish, inflation numbers come in hotter than expected, and Bitcoin loses the $74,000–$75,000 area. That opens the door down to $62,200. If that breaks too, $59,000 could come into play, a much deeper drop from the $80,000 level.
So for now, $82,800 is the key number to watch on the upside. On the downside, bulls have to defend $74,000–$75,000. Jackson Hole will probably decide which way this breaks first.
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