XRP exchange-traded funds have continued to produce numbers since entering the market, and recent commentary indicate the next wave of demand may come from large institutional players. A thread shared by TheCryptoBasic shows how interest from pension funds and insurance companies could change the long-term demand profile for XRP ETFs, with potential implications for price over time.
XRP ETFs officially entered the market in November, led by Canary Capital’s XRPC product, which launched on November 13. The debut attracted strong demand, pulling in $245 million in inflows on its first day. One week later, Bitwise launched its own XRP ETF, followed by Franklin Templeton and Grayscale just days after. 21Shares completed the initial wave of launches on December 16.
Since then, all five XRP ETFs have recorded consistent inflows. According to TheCryptoBasic, there have been no recorded days of outflows so far. After 21 consecutive days of net positive demand, total combined inflows across these products have surpassed $1 billion. As of the latest data, inflows stand at approximately $1.14 billion.
Much of this early demand came from retail investors, which is typical for newly launched crypto ETFs. However, Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg suggested that the investor mix may already be shifting.
Speaking on a recent podcast, McClurg explained that retail investors dominated inflows during the first one to two weeks after launch. Since then, Canary Capital has started receiving inquiries from pension funds and insurance companies across multiple regions. According to McClurg, these institutions represent a key long-term audience and view XRP as financial infrastructure rather than a short-term trading asset.
$XRP Price Could Reach $10-$15 as XRP ETFs Seeing Interest from Global Pension Funds.🧵🧵🧵 pic.twitter.com/QYWUJ43UiA
— TheCryptoBasic (@thecryptobasic) December 25, 2025
This distinction matters because pension funds and insurance firms manage trillions of dollars globally and typically operate on multi-year time horizons. Unlike retail traders, these institutions are not active market participants and tend to hold assets for five to ten years once positions are established.
To explore what this could mean for XRP’s price, TheCryptoBasic referenced an analysis from Google Gemini. The chatbot showed what it described as a “multiplier effect” commonly observed in crypto markets, where each dollar of new capital can create a larger increase in market capitalization due to limited liquid supply.
At present, XRP ETFs hold roughly $1.25 billion in assets, primarily from retail investors. Gemini indicated that if pension funds and insurance companies were to allocate just 0.5% to 1% of their portfolios to XRP ETFs, net inflows could increase by $10 billion to $20 billion. Using a hypothetical 30x multiplier, $15 billion in new capital could translate into a $450 billion increase in market capitalization.
With an estimated 60 billion XRP in circulation, that level of market cap expansion would equate to roughly $7.50 per token. In this scenario, XRP could approach the $9 range, with higher levels possible during periods of strong momentum and reduced exchange supply. Gemini noted that long-term custody associated with ETF structures could further limit available sell-side liquidity.
However, these projections remain hypothetical. They assume sustained institutional interest, stable regulatory conditions, and favorable market dynamics. Reaching the $10 to $15 range would require not only continued ETF inflows, but also broader participation from long-term institutional capital and supportive macro conditions.
For now, the key takeaway is not a specific price target, but a shift in market structure. XRP ETFs have moved beyond a purely retail-driven phase, and early signs suggest growing curiosity from larger institutions. Whether that interest translates into sustained capital allocations will likely determine XRP’s longer-term trajectory.
Read also: Holding XRP Got Painful: Treasury Data Shows Heavy Losses
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for daily crypto updates, market insights, and expert analysis.
