Bitcoin is currently trading at $104,656, not far off its all-time high of $111,970. Many analysts expect BTC to break the $150,000 mark before the end of 2025. It’s one of the most popular predictions flying around crypto circles right now. But if there’s one thing this market loves to do, it’s prove the majority wrong.
So what happens if Bitcoin doesn’t make it to $150K this year? We decided to run the scenario through AI and look at what it could mean for XRP – which is currently trading at $2.20 after its own impressive late-2024 rally.
First, let’s be clear. Even if Bitcoin doesn’t reach $150K, that doesn’t mean it’s over for the market. If BTC pushes past its all-time high of $111,970, even by a few thousand dollars, that alone could still trigger a strong altcoin season. We’ve already seen this happen just last month. Bitcoin pushed slightly higher than its previous peak, and that small move was enough to light up altcoins across the board. XRP was one of the biggest gainers during that surge.
According to AI projections, if Bitcoin tops out between $115K and $130K – failing to reach the $150K mark – XRP could still perform well. In this scenario, AI expects XRP to reach somewhere between $2.80 and $3.50 by the end of 2025. That would represent a solid move from its current level, but it wouldn’t be the kind of explosive rally that usually comes with a full-blown bull market.
JUST IN: Gold is a $22 trillion asset and Bitcoin is a $2 trillion asset. It looks like Bitcoin is about to… make the next leg to $130K-$150K, at that point we are in price discovery – Mike Novogratz pic.twitter.com/xIXRXvD5rY
— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) May 16, 2025
The AI model gives this scenario around a 45% probability, based on current market momentum and how Bitcoin is behaving just below its previous highs. Many traders are watching for a breakout, but they’re also hedging for the possibility that Bitcoin takes a slower, more conservative path this cycle.
Now, if Bitcoin truly stalls out and fails to break its all-time high at all – staying below $112K for the rest of the year – the story changes. In that case, XRP could still grind higher, but the pace would be slower and more dependent on Ripple’s ecosystem news, regulatory wins, or adoption milestones. AI puts XRP’s possible range in this low-BTC-breakout scenario somewhere between $2.40 and $2.80.
It’s not a crash scenario, but it would reflect a flatter altcoin market where XRP moves more cautiously with lower momentum. The reason XRP might still perform decently even without a huge Bitcoin breakout comes down to timing. Historically, altcoins tend to lag behind BTC. So if Bitcoin even briefly flirts with its ATH, it could still trigger enough excitement to send XRP higher.
And of course, there’s always the wildcard. If Bitcoin stays flat but Ripple announces a major partnership or regulatory breakthrough, XRP could decouple and push higher on its own. AI gives a 10% chance that XRP hits $4 or higher even if BTC stays under $130K, but only if there’s a major external catalyst.
For now, all eyes are on Bitcoin’s next move. If it clears $112K, XRP holders could see a fresh wave of gains. But if BTC slows down or stays range-bound, XRP still has room to grow – just at a slower pace.
Bottom line: XRP doesn’t need Bitcoin to hit $150K to move higher. It just needs enough spark – from the market or from Ripple – to keep climbing.
Read also: Your Pi Coins Aren’t Safe – Unless You Know This About Pi Network Wallet
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