Ever since BTC and ETH ETFs got the green light in the U.S. last year, people in the crypto world have been wondering which asset might be next. Cardano (ADA) is often at the top of those conversations. In fact, prediction markets like Polymarket are currently giving ADA a 65% chance of getting an ETF approval in 2025.
The excitement really began earlier this year when Grayscale filed for a spot Cardano ETF. The SEC officially acknowledged the application on February 24, 2025. But like with most crypto ETF filings, the process has been slow. The commission recently pushed back its decision date to July 15. They’ll either approve it, reject it, or delay it again. But no matter what happens this summer, the SEC has to make a final call by October 22.
So, what happens to ADA’s price if the ETF gets approved?
BREAKING NEWS:
— Mintern (@MinswapIntern) May 30, 2025
SEC SETS NEW DATE FOR Cardano ETF Decision 😱😱😱
The SEC has pushed its decision on the @Grayscale Cardano $ADA Spot ETF to July 15th.
Could this extra time bring more clarity or more uncertainty? pic.twitter.com/x6KwvvG5vR
Right now, ADA is trading around $0.67. That’s a far cry from its all-time high of over $3. But a spot ETF approval could spark the kind of rally we saw with Bitcoin and Ethereum. In both of those cases, ETF news helped drive big inflows and fresh interest from institutional investors. A similar pattern could play out for Cardano.
If the ETF is approved in July or October, we could see the ADA price pump quickly. A move to $1.20–$1.50 seems realistic in the short term, especially if the news hits during a broader market upswing. In a full-on bull market scenario, with the ETF acting as a major tailwind, ADA could even reclaim the $2 level for the first time since 2021.
Of course, it’s not guaranteed. A rejection or another long delay could dampen momentum, especially if broader crypto sentiment is weak. But if the SEC finally gives ADA the nod and the product launches with strong volume, it could mark the start of Cardano’s next big chapter.
When the spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in January 2024, BTC climbed from around $45,000 to over $65,000 within six weeks. Similarly, when the SEC gave the green light to Ethereum ETFs in May 2025, ETH rallied from about $2,900 to nearly $4,100 in just over two weeks. Even though other factors were also in play, ETF approval clearly acted as a major catalyst. If ADA follows the same pattern, a strong post-approval surge would not be surprising.
For now, all eyes are on July 15. And then, if needed, October 22. Cardano investors don’t have to wait much longer to find out if their favorite smart contract platform is next in line for ETF approval.
Read also: $10 ADA Price? The Hidden Ingredients for Cardano’s Next Big Move – Here’s the Timeline
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