Gold Price Prediction: Target $15,000 by 2034? Quarterly Candle Turned Bearish, But the Bull Market Isn’t Over
The gold price spent the past week moving between $4,500 and $4,590 after pulling back from $4700 earlier this month. Traders are balancing several major forces at once. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar continue limiting upside momentum because higher yields make non-yielding assets like gold less attractive.
Also, the war between US and Iran and inflation concerns are still supporting safe-haven demand. From a technical view, gold remains below its short-term moving averages near $4,620 and $4,670, though the metal still trades comfortably above its long-term 200-day moving average near $4,370. Momentum indicators also show uncertainty, with the RSI staying near the 42 to 46 range.
What you'll learn 👉
Gold Quarterly Chart Signals Bigger Correction Inside Long-Term Bull Market
Commodity analyst Graddhy shared a long-term quarterly gold chart that caught attention across the metals market because of its bold projection toward a possible $15,000 gold price target by 2034. The chart uses Kondratieff Wave theory, which tracks long economic and commodity cycles that can last decades.
We looked at the chart, and one of the biggest points is the upper red trendline that gold touched before pulling back. Graddhy said that contact likely marked a temporary top, even though many traders expected the rally to continue without interruption. The quarterly candle that followed turned bearish, supporting the idea that the gold price may need a larger cooldown period before another major advance.
Gold hit that upper red line, and back then I said a top was probably here. Got some heat for that but that candle then turned into a huge bearish quarterly candle.
— Graddhy – Commodities TA+Cycles (@graddhybpc) May 20, 2026
The bull is still very much on, but all bull markets have larger corrections and consolidations. https://t.co/FUDvy2hb5z pic.twitter.com/cFbnCmpJbd
The chart also compares the current rally with earlier gold bull markets from the late 1970s and the 2000s cycle. In both past cases, the gold price rose hard, then fell deep, then kept climbing later in the cycle. That is one reason the analyst still thinks the long-term bull market is still alive, even with the latest drop.
Another key detail is the timing model on the chart. Graddhy believes the current Kondratieff Wave cycle could run well into the early 2030s. If the pattern follows earlier cycles, gold could eventually pass $10,000 and maybe test $15,000 before the cycle tops out.
Related Gold News: Gold Price vs. S&P 500 Volatility Spread Hits 20-Year Peak – History Says Stocks May Plunge
Why the Gold Price Still Has Bullish Long-Term Drivers
Even with the latest drop, several big forces still support higher gold prices over time. Central banks around the world continue to hold large gold reserves. Many countries keep buying more as they move away from relying on the U.S. dollar system.
Inflation is also still a big part of the story. High energy prices, broken supply chains, and rising world tensions keep creating uncertainty. The gold price usually does well when people worry about weak currencies and lost buying power.
People are also more worried about government debt. The United States alone owes more than $35 trillion. Many investors think that long-term debt growth could eventually shake confidence in paper money. That kind of world often helps hard assets like gold and silver.
The pullbacks inside a bull market are normal. The gold price ran up hard over the last two years. So some profit-taking and sideways movement were expected after such a steep climb. The latest three-month candle may look bad in the short run, but longer-term charts still show higher highs and higher lows across the bigger cycle.
Gold Price Prediction: Can Gold Really Reach $15,000?
A move toward $15,000 would take another major rise in world demand for safe assets. That kind of run would probably need a few things to happen together: inflation that won’t go away, less trust in paper money, central banks piling in, and world tensions that keep up.
The bullish case depends on gold holding key support levels during this correction. If buyers defend the $4,300 to $4,500 zone and bond yield pressure starts easing, gold could regain momentum.
The argument for the downtrend is based on rising bond yields and restrictive monetary policy. Should bond yields remain elevated over several years, the gold price might struggle to rise as quickly as it has done during the current rally, especially amid faster-than-expected declines in inflation.
But the overall picture is hard to overlook since gold remains near record-highs despite large selling pressure in the context of a bearish three-month candlestick pattern. That kind of strength is one reason many long-term investors still think gold could go much higher before this cycle finally ends.
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