EUR/USD Price Prediction: Sellers Still Control the Trend, but Bulls Have a Clear Trigger!
EUR/USD price remains trapped inside a broader bearish structure, but one TradingView analyst has mapped a clear path that could turn the short-term outlook more constructive.
The four-hour chart still shows a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming that sellers have controlled the pair for much of the recent move.
However, price is now trading close to an area where the next reaction could become important.
The analyst identifies 1.12176 as the first level that bulls need to reclaim before talking seriously about a recovery.
What you'll learn 👉
EUR/USD Price Needs to Reclaim 1.12176 for a Bullish Recovery
EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1157, still below the nearby resistance zone.
The chart marks 1.12176 as a breakout confirmation level.
A four-hour close above it would be the first meaningful sign that buyers are starting to challenge the existing bearish structure.
But the breakout alone would not be enough.
The stronger signal would come if EUR/USD moves above 1.12176, retests the level and then holds it as support.
If that happens, the next upside level is around 1.12693, which represents a previous swing high and potential buy-side liquidity area.
Above that, the recovery path becomes much more interesting.
The chart then points toward:
1.12693 → 1.13480 → 1.14120 → 1.14956
The 1.13480 level is marked as a recovery milestone, while 1.14120 and 1.14956 sit inside larger seller and supply zones.
EUR/USD Bearish Trend Remains Intact Below Key Resistance
The bullish scenario is possible, but it has not been confirmed.
EUR/USD is still trading below the levels needed to reverse the broader structure.
That keeps sellers in control for now.
The first support to watch is 1.11360.
If price breaks below that level, the analyst expects renewed pressure toward 1.11053.
This lower area is marked as a weak low and potential liquidity zone.
A brief move below 1.11053 followed by a quick recovery could produce a liquidity sweep.
But if EUR/USD breaks through it and stays below, the existing downtrend would remain firmly intact.
Read also: EUR/USD Price Prediction: Euro Hits 17-Month Low as France’s Debt Worries Grow
EUR/USD Price Targets if Bulls Break 1.12176
The upside structure becomes much clearer once EUR/USD gets above 1.12176.
The first target would be 1.12693.
A move above that previous swing high would strengthen the recovery case and put 1.13480 in focus.
From there, the chart identifies two larger resistance areas around 1.14120 and 1.14956.
So the bullish path can be simplified to:
1.12176 → 1.12693 → 1.13480 → 1.14120 → 1.14956
Each level would still need to be cleared before the next one becomes realistic.
EUR/USD Downside Levels to Watch if Support Breaks
The bearish path is just as clear.
If EUR/USD loses 1.11360, the next level to watch is 1.11053.
A clean break below 1.11053 would reinforce the current downtrend and increase the risk of another move lower.
The chart therefore gives traders two very simple triggers.
Above 1.12176, the recovery scenario starts gaining strength.
Below 1.11360, sellers regain momentum.
For now, the larger EUR/USD structure remains bearish.
But a confirmed breakout above 1.12176 would be the first signal that buyers are beginning to change the short-term trend.
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