XRP saw a relief pump of about 4% today, trading near $2.91 at press time. But while traders welcomed the bounce, crypto analyst Ali is flashing a warning. His latest chart shows that the MVRV ratio for XRP just triggered a death cross, which often signals that a deeper correction could be on the way.
Understanding Ali’s Chart
The chart Ali shared tracks three key lines:
- Black line: XRP’s price
- Orange line: MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value)
- Red line: 200-day moving average of the MVRV ratio
The MVRV ratio flashed a death cross for $XRP, suggesting a steeper correction could be underway! pic.twitter.com/DDTuDjj6rE
— Ali (@ali_charts) August 3, 2025
The MVRV ratio measures if a cryptocurrency looks cheap or expensive compared to what holders paid for their coins. It compares today’s market price to the average price of coins last moved on-chain.
When the short-term MVRV falls under its long-term average, called a death cross, it means most holders have less profit left. This often leads to more selling because traders start locking in what little gains they still have.
Read also: Ripple’s Co-Founder Is Selling XRP
Why This Signals Trouble for XRP
Ali’s tweet warns that the MVRV death cross historically precedes steeper pullbacks. Even though XRP bounced today, the orange MVRV line has sharply dropped below its 200-day average. This means that many wallets are now holding XRP close to or below their cost basis, which can cause nervous holders to sell into any short-term rally.
The timing is notable because XRP is still below the psychological $3 level after falling from its July high of $3.65. If selling pressure builds, a retest of the $2.60 or even $2.40 support zones could come into play.
The short-term pump to $2.91 doesn’t erase the warning signs. Ali’s MVRV analysis suggests that XRP’s correction may not be over yet, and traders should watch for increased volatility if the broader market turns lower.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for daily crypto updates, market insights, and expert analysis.
