Cardano has spent the past year under steady pressure, and that pressure has left many holders deep in losses. ADA price has dropped about 65% between March 2025 and March 2026, and the weakness has continued into this year with another 21.2% decline since January. That kind of drawdown usually raises concerns, yet some data now points to a different side of the story.
Santiment provided one of the clearest insights into the current situation. The on-chain analytics firm noted that the average active wallet on the Cardano network sits at around -43% returns. That number shows widespread pain across holders, yet it also introduces a pattern that has appeared before in crypto cycles.
Santiment explains that the current MVRV level places ADA in what is often described as an opportunity zone. MVRV tracks the average profit or loss of holders, and extreme negative readings usually appear close to market bottoms.
This situation creates a simple dynamic. Most participants are holding losses, which reduces selling pressure over time. At the same time, larger players often see reduced risk when prices move far below average cost basis.
Santiment highlights that markets tend to normalize around a 0% average return over time. That means periods of deep losses often precede a recovery phase, even though timing remains uncertain.
📉 Average wallets that have been active on the Cardano network over the past year are netting a return of -43% on their investments. Memes aside about the altcoin's major -71% price decline since September, this extreme negative MVRV value is generally an indicator of $ADA being… pic.twitter.com/LzQRKhobQe
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) March 24, 2026
Cardano Funding Rates Reveal Heavy Short Positioning
Another signal comes from derivatives data. Cardano funding rates on Binance show the highest level of short positions compared to longs since June 2023.
That imbalance matters because crowded trades rarely resolve in a straight line. When too many traders expect further downside, the market often moves in the opposite direction to liquidate those positions.
Santiment points out that funding rates tend to push prices toward the path that surprises the majority. Current positioning suggests many traders still expect ADA price to fall further, which creates conditions for a possible reversal if momentum shifts.
Historical Patterns Show Pain Often Comes Before Recovery
Crypto markets have shown this pattern many times. Bitcoin and major altcoins have all gone through phases where average holders sit in heavy losses before a recovery begins.
Cardano itself has followed similar cycles in the past. Periods of weak sentiment and declining prices often appeared before strong upward moves once selling pressure faded and demand returned.
That context does not guarantee an immediate rebound. It does, however, explain why extreme negative sentiment often attracts attention from experienced market participants.
Read Also: XRP Price Warning: Drop to $0.87 Before Ripping Higher – Here’s the Analyst’s Plan
Two paths now stand out for ADA price. Continued weakness could push Cardano lower if broader market conditions remain soft and demand stays limited. That scenario would extend the current downtrend and test holder patience further.
A different outcome could develop if short positions begin to unwind and buying interest increases. That shift could trigger a sharper move upward as liquidity flows back into ADA and short traders exit positions.
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