EGRAG Crypto, a well-followed market analyst known for his long-standing bullish views on XRP, has shifted his focus this time from short-term price action to a broader and more technical measure – XRP market dominance.
At the center of EGRAG’s prediction is the XRP dominance monthly chart (XRP.D), and specifically, the Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level, which he views as a critical resistance line. This level, sitting at 5.75% dominance, has repeatedly acted as a cap on XRP’s growth for nearly six years. According to him, that resistance is now being tested again – and this time, it could break.
To understand the weight of this claim, it helps to look at historical data:
Back in May 2017, XRP hit its highest dominance level of 31.33%, when its price surged to $3.80. Since then, however, dominance steadily declined and struggled to recover past the Fib. 0.5 line. EGRAG points to multiple attempts to break this level – in October 2019, November 2020, and early 2025 – all of which saw a brief breakout followed by a sharp correction. In fact, one of the sharpest drops came after the SEC lawsuit in December 2020, which pulled XRP dominance from over 6% to just 1.31% in a single month.
Fast forward to January 2025, XRP hit a high of $3.40 following inclusion in the U.S. crypto reserve stockpile, and dominance nearly hit the key resistance again at 5.58%. Since then, the XRP chart has shown multiple “knocks” on this Fib level. EGRAG argues that these repeated attempts – four major ones since 2019 – suggest growing pressure, and that a fifth knock could finally break the door open.
In chartist terms, EGRAG expects the breakout to form a bullish flag pattern – a structure that often precedes major upside moves. He sees this leading to a jump in XRP dominance up to 27%, nearly half of its 2017 peak.
But the real fireworks begin when he combines this projected dominance with a broader crypto market cap forecast. EGRAG estimates that the total crypto market could grow from its current $3.29 trillion to $5.5 trillion – a 67% increase. If XRP were to claim 27% of that market, it would command a market cap of $1.485 trillion.
And what would that mean for price?
If you divide that projected market cap by XRP’s circulating supply, EGRAG calculates a target price of $27 per XRP. That’s a 1,150% increase from current levels around $2.16.
💭 Commentary: Ambitious, Technical – and Not Entirely Impossible
EGRAG’s analysis is bold, but it’s not random hype. It’s based on historical resistance zones, real dominance data, and Fibonacci levels – all core tools for seasoned market watchers. What makes this interesting is that he’s not saying XRP needs to do something brand new. He’s saying it just needs to break a level it has already tested multiple times, and then the domino effect begins.
But there are a few things to keep in mind.
Read also: How Much Will XRP Be Worth If Ripple Handles 15% of SWIFT Volume?
First, while dominance charts are useful, they aren’t price predictions by themselves. For XRP to hit 27% market dominance, Bitcoin and Ethereum would have to underperform, or XRP would need to attract enormous new capital in a way that overshadows other top coins – something that hasn’t happened since 2017.
Second, while $5.5 trillion is a realistic target for the entire crypto market over the next cycle, XRP capturing nearly one-third of that is a very aggressive assumption. It’s possible, especially with major regulatory clarity and new use cases like CBDCs, but far from guaranteed.
Still, EGRAG’s framing is important. By showing how dominance and total market growth can combine into exponential upside, he highlights why XRP remains one of the most polarizing assets in crypto. If it plays its cards right, the upside potential is massive – but that outcome depends on a perfect alignment of market conditions, sentiment, adoption, and regulation.
So, will 2025 be XRP’s breakout year?
If EGRAG is right, and that fifth knock on the door finally breaks the resistance, we might be looking at one of the largest altcoin rallies in crypto history. But as always, conviction must be paired with caution.
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