Bitcoin is heading into a new day in a pretty uncomfortable spot. The BTC price trades around the $62,850 mark, having broken below the key support of $63,500, and the recent move brings the market nearer to another key support area.
What makes this setup interesting is the mixed signals. The Bitcoin price structure remains bearish, with lower highs and lower lows, but several momentum indicators are now deeply oversold. At the same time, a new MSCI proposal could create another source of pressure around Strategy, while one major cycle analysis puts a potential Bitcoin bottom around October 6.
What you'll learn 👉
BTC Price Action – The $63,500 Breakdown
When we zoom in on the Bitcoin chart, the recent decline becomes easier to follow. The BTC price got to the $67,255 mark around mid-July, following which the currency started a series of lower highs and lows.
Later, BTC attempted to build a base at the level of $63,500, which, however, could not hold up as the cryptocurrency slipped below it to touch a low of $62,841.60.
The breakdown also brought Bitcoin close to the next major support levels. The immediate area to watch is $62,000, and if that fails, the June low near $57,758 becomes the next key level for the “BTC price.”
Current leg: Bitcoin is now trading around the $62,800-$62,900 area, with sellers still controlling the short-term structure.
Support & Resistance Zones
| Level | Type | Notes |
| $67,255 | Major resistance | July recovery high |
| $63,500 | Broken support | Previous structural floor |
| $62,800-$62,000 | Immediate support | Current breakdown area |
| $60,000 | Psychological support | Major round-number level |
| $57,758 | Major support | June swing low |
The level I’m watching most closely is $62,000. If Bitcoin holds that area, the market could attempt a relief move toward $63,500. A clean break below $62,000 would put the June low near $57,758 back on the table.
Indicators:
RSI (6, 12, 24): The fast RSI has fallen to 28.04, below the traditional 30 oversold threshold. The medium RSI is at 33.24, and the longer RSI is around 39.00.
MACD (12, 26, 9): The MACD remains bearish, with DIF at -351.7 and DEA at -305.7. The histogram is printing expanding red bars, confirming that downside momentum remains strong.
CCI (20): The CCI is at -130.9, well below the -100 oversold threshold, showing that selling pressure has become heavily stretched. This leaves room for a short-term relief bounce if buyers begin returning to the market.
So the message is pretty clear. The Bitcoin price is still under pressure, but the market has already moved into an extreme oversold area.
MSCI Proposal Could Put More Pressure on Strategy
There is another risk for Bitcoin traders to watch. Bull Theory reported that MSCI has brought back a proposal that could remove Strategy and other companies from major indexes under a new Non-Operating Companies classification.
🚨 THE SAME CATALYST THAT CAUSED THE OCTOBER 10 CRASH IS BACK.
— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) August 14, 2026
MSCI has brought back the proposal that would remove Michael Saylor's Strategy from every major global index.
The first time it did this, on October 10, Bitcoin dropped roughly $18,000 in one day and over $20… pic.twitter.com/NnIgIM60rE
The proposal is broader than crypto. MSCI tested the framework using May 2026 data, with Strategy, Metaplanet and uranium company Yellow Cake failing the initial test. Bull Theory also reported that JPMorgan previously estimated around $8.8 billion of potential Strategy-related selling if the company were removed.
The Bitcoin connection is obvious because Strategy owns 840,447 BTC. Any forced selling of Strategy shares could put pressure on the company and potentially affect one of the biggest corporate sources of Bitcoin demand.
That does not mean $8.8 billion worth of BTC would automatically hit the market. The immediate concern is the potential impact on Strategy and passive funds holding its shares.
Could October Mark the Bitcoin Bottom?
Ali Martinez has a much bigger-picture view. His four-year-cycle analysis places a potential Bitcoin bottom around October 6, 2026, with a proposed accumulation range between $62,000 and $48,000.
The analysis projects previous peaks of cycles at $20,000 in 2017 and $69,000 in 2021, after which there were troughs of $3,000-$4,000 and $15,000-$16,000. This particular cycle has attained $100,000 by 2025, meaning that the market is currently in a bear market and an accumulation phase.
This figure is a mere projection and is not guaranteed. However, it provides an important guideline to understand how long the ongoing correction period may continue.
Read Also: We Asked AI What XRP Could Be Worth If Bitcoin Hits $500K Next Bull Run
Bitcoin Price Prediction for Today (August 15)
The Bitcoin price is around $62,850, and the short-term trend remains bearish after losing $63,500. The oversold indicators, however, make another aggressive move lower and increasingly risky.
Bullish Case: If BTC holds $62,000-$62,500 and the RSI starts recovering from 28.04, Bitcoin could bounce toward $63,500. Reclaiming that level would improve the short-term structure.
Neutral Scenario: The BTC price could consolidate between $62,000 and $63,500 as the oversold conditions cool down. This would give buyers and sellers time to establish a clearer direction before the next major move.
Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break below $62,000 would expose $60,000, followed by the June low near $57,758. Losing these levels would weaken the recovery structure further and increase the risk of a deeper correction.
My Take: The Bitcoin price remains weak, but I would not ignore the oversold setup. RSI at 28.04 and CCI at -130.9 show that sellers have pushed the market hard. For August 15, $62,000 is the level I’m watching most closely. Hold it, and BTC can attempt a recovery toward $63,500. Lose it, and $60,000-$57,758 becomes the next major area to watch.
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