Bitcoin Eyes January Gains Despite Historic Downside Risks: Analyzing BTC Price Reactions Following the Last Two Bullish Q4s
It’s the first trading day of 2024 and Bitcoin is hovering around $42,600, with minimal price movement over the last 24 hours. As we analyze where Bitcoin might head next, popular crypto analyst Ali provides some insightful technical and historical analysis.
According to Ali, Bitcoin is currently positioned between two key supply walls:
“Support Zone: Between $41,200 – $42,400, backed by 1.92 million addresses holding 723,500 $BTC. Resistance Zone: Between $42,500 – $43,750, where 1.67 million addresses are sitting on 706,400 #BTC.”
In other words, there is significant buying and selling interest around Bitcoin’s current trading range between $41,200 and $43,750. A decisive move outside of this range could set the trend for the next Bitcoin price swing.
Specifically, Ali notes that “A breakout above resistance may propel #BTC towards $47,600, while a dip below support might lead to a correction down to $38,600.”
Beyond the technicals, Ali also examines historical Bitcoin price patterns:
“History might be hinting at what’s next for #Bitcoin! In the last two instances, a strong $BTC performance in September, October, November, and December was followed by a bearish January. If this trend keeps up, prepare for a spike in profit-taking in January.”
The last two precedents Ali is referring to are from 2015 and 2016, when an end-of-year Bitcoin price run was followed by a January downturn.
Of course, historical patterns do not necessarily repeat themselves. A key variable this time is the pending Bitcoin ETF approvals, which would allow mainstream investors easy Bitcoin access via their existing brokerage accounts. While much anticipation may already be priced into Bitcoin’s rally from $25k to over $40k in 2023, ETF approvals could still provide enough incremental buying pressure to power Bitcoin to new highs.
In summary, Ali presents a case for both bullish and bearish scenarios in January 2024. On the bullish side, Bitcoin ETF approvals and a breakout above resistance could send Bitcoin rallying towards its all-time high around $60k. On the flip side, historical trends and technical resistance point to potential downside towards $38k if support fails to hold. Volatility and sharp moves in either direction seem likely based on this analysis. We’ll be watching closely with Ali which way Bitcoin breaks out next.
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