Ethereum is back near $2,100 after being hit particularly hard by the latest crypto market crash, but one analyst believes ETH may be approaching an important long-term buying area.
Freedom By 40 presented a bullish Elliott Wave scenario that starts from the support zone Ethereum is testing now. His primary count ultimately takes ETH to new all-time highs, although he is waiting to see how strongly buyers respond before treating that scenario as confirmed.
That caution makes sense. Ether recently fell below $2,100, around its lowest price since August, with roughly $462 million in ETH long positions liquidated over 24 hours. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have also recorded roughly $340 million in net outflows across the latest five trading sessions.
What you'll learn 👉
Ethereum Is Sitting Inside the Analyst’s Key Support Box
The chart places ETH inside a broad Fibonacci support region between approximately $1,977 and $2,339.
More specifically, the levels are:
The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $2,339, the 0.50 level around $2,150 and the 0.618 retracement at roughly $1,977.
ETH is currently around $2,130, putting price almost directly on the $2,150 midpoint.
This makes the current area particularly important. A successful defense of roughly $1,975-$2,150 would fit the analyst’s proposed Wave 2 bottom and provide the foundation for the next impulsive move.
A clean loss of $1,977 would weaken that interpretation considerably, with another Fibonacci support near $1,754 becoming relevant.
Could Ethereum Really Return to New ATHs?
The bullish path on the chart is aggressive.
Freedom By 40 projects a potential Wave 3 toward approximately $5,381, followed by a Wave 4 correction and another advance toward the $7,269 area.
From an ETH price near $2,130, $5,381 would represent gains of about 153%.
Reaching $7,269 would mean roughly a 241% increase.
Higher Fibonacci extensions at $8,733 and $11,827 are also displayed, although these should be treated as long-term extensions rather than immediate targets.
Interestingly, the analyst says even his bearish path should eventually carry ETH toward roughly $3,873.
That would still represent an increase of more than 80% from current prices.
Read also: Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP Sentiment Is Collapsing, But There’s a Catch
One Part of the Bullish Case Has Yet to Show Up
Freedom By 40 also points to the ETH/BTC setup as a reason he favors the bullish scenario.
Current market data, however, makes this part of the thesis worth watching closely.
ETH/BTC is around 0.0284, its lowest reading since July, and Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin by roughly 5.7% over the past 30 days.
In other words, ETH is not yet showing the relative strength that would make a large rotation into Ethereum obvious.
A reversal in ETH/BTC would therefore add considerable weight to the analyst’s bullish count.
Ethereum Fundamentals Tell a Different Story Than Price
The price weakness also contrasts with Ethereum’s underlying network activity.
Ethereum mainnet averaged 2.17 million transactions per day between January and October, up 54% from the same period last year. Stablecoins moved $25.8 trillion across Ethereum during the period, an increase of 61%, and approximately 44.2 million ETH was staked by the end of October, equivalent to 36.1% of circulating supply.
That does not mean ETH has found its bottom.
ETF money is leaving, ETH/BTC remains weak and the broader crypto market is still under pressure.
But the chart does offer a clear line in the sand.
If Ethereum can defend approximately $1,975-$2,150 and start recovering above $2,339, the case that this area represents a larger Wave 2 bottom becomes much more interesting.
If $1,975 gives way, buying simply because ETH looks cheap becomes considerably harder to justify.
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