Bitcoin slipped under a key round number this morning, and several separate pressures landed on the same day. Election voting, a record exchange hack, and fresh ETF numbers all matter here, so it helps to take them one at a time.
Bitcoin is down more than 10% over the past 4 weeks. The BTC price has also dropped around 3% in the last 24 hours and trades near $76,800 at the time of writing. The wider crypto market has moved lower with it.
Four drivers stand out today:
- Institutional outflows from spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs
- Uncertainty around the US midterm elections
- Fallout from the Binance hack
- Tech stock weakness and tighter financial conditions
What you'll learn 👉
Spot Bitcoin and Ether ETF Outflows Add Pressure Before the Midterm Vote
Institutional money is leaving crypto products at a notable pace. Net outflows have reached the hundreds of millions of dollars, and recent pre-election sessions total over $1 billion.
Analyst Ronald Carter shared a snapshot of the latest flows on X. He reported that BlackRock’s IBIT lost $405.3 million in one day, while his post lists $398.6 million of outflows across all spot BTC ETFs. Spot ETH ETFs recorded $139.7 million in outflows, which marks a 6th red day in a row. Carter’s figures come from his own post, so the totals may differ slightly from other trackers.
⚠️ $BTC HOLDERS, READ THIS! WALL STREET IS PULLING MONEY OUT OF BITCOIN RIGHT BEFORE THE ELECTION. BLACKROCK’S IBIT JUST LOST $405.3 MILLION IN ONE DAY. ALL SPOT BTC ETFS: -$398.6M, 2ND RED DAY IN A ROW SPOT ETH ETFS: -$139.7M, 6TH RED DAY IN A ROW $BTC IS SITTING AT $76,796 AND THE RESULTS START COMING IN TONIGHT 👀
— 🇺🇸 Ronald Carter (@USronaldcarter) November 3, 2026
Voting is also underway, and risk-averse investors often pull back or hedge until the result is clear. Bitcoin has historically seen defensive pullbacks of 5% to 10% ahead of major US political events.
Binance Hack Fallout Still Weighs on Market Confidence
The market is still absorbing the multi-billion-dollar security breach at Binance. Customers withdrew over $5.8 billion in the initial window after the exchange reopened. Binance has said it will cover the losses, which may help confidence over time.
Macro Pressure and Liquidations Push BTC Toward $76,400 Support
Global tech stocks and other high beta assets are under strain from heavy AI spending and tighter financial conditions. Arthur Hayes has noted that broader crypto weakness may last until central banks, including the Federal Reserve, expand their balance sheets.
Leveraged positions added to the move. Long and short liquidations came close to $90 million, and they pushed Bitcoin toward key support near $76,400.
Doctor Profit Explains Why the $76,000 Level Matters Most
Analyst Doctor Profit does not treat the Binance hack as a normal event. He calls it a black swan, because roughly $6.3 billion was stolen and Bitcoin fell only about 5%. His own guess before the hack was a drop of 15% to 20%, and the low formed at $76,400.
He backed his view with several on-chain and technical readings:
- 36,600 BTC from short term holders moved to exchanges below their purchase cost within 24 hours.
- Realized losses reached $1.115 billion in a single day.
- The daily RSI was around 34.7, its lowest reading since June 30.
- Bitcoin closed below its lower daily Bollinger Band on October 29.
- The Coinbase Premium fell to 0.27%, its lowest since November 2022 during the FTX crash.
He then outlined three levels. The first is $76,000, which he says must hold because it confirmed the earlier breakout and sits near the 50-week moving average. A loss would need 2 to 3 daily closes below it, and he warns that $67,000 to $69,000 would then become a risk. The second is a reclaim of the lost support zone with daily closes above it, which he would read as a return to normal. The third is $82,000, where he expects a breakout once Bitcoin regains the $80,000 to $81,000 area.
His average long entry is $80,400, and he says he remains confident as long as $76,000 holds. He also warned that Apple, Palantir, and AMD earnings and the midterms could bring heavy volatility this week. His post is labeled educational content and not financial advice.
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DarkMatter Argues the Bitcoin Cycle Low May Still Be Ahead
Analyst DarkMatter takes a more cautious view in his November 3 cycle check. His base case is a low between late 2026 and Q1 2027, most likely in the $52,000 to $65,000 zone. He treats $40,000 as a tail risk, because the current drawdown of 52% from the $126,200 all time high is shallower than the 84% and 77% declines in the 2018 and 2022 bears.
$BTC | Cycle check, 3 Nov 2026 Is the bottom in? My read: probably not yet. Base case is a low between late 2026 and Q1 2027, most likely in the $52k to $65k zone. $40k is a tail risk, not the base case. PRICE STRUCTURE – ATH: $126.2k (6 Oct 2025) – Current: ~$80.7k, about 36% below ATH – 2026 low: ~$60k (late July 2026), about 52% below ATH – Recent range: rejection near $85k in late October, five-week low near $79.1k, Sept high ~$87.4k DRAWDOWN COMPARISON – 2018 bear: about −84% – 2022 bear: about −77% – Current cycle so far: −52% at the low, shallower than prior bears. This is the main reason I doubt $40k is the floor. LONG-TERM TREND – A log line through the Dec 2018 and Nov 2022 lows ($15,476) projects to roughly $78k today. Price sits on it. – $40k would require a ~50% break below that line. That line passed $40k around early 2025, so it isn’t current structural support. ON-CHAIN – Realized price: ~$52.3k (8 Aug 2026 estimate). Price is ~1.5x realized. – MVRV: ~1.24 on 8 Aug at ~$64k. ~1.5 at ~$79k on 28 Aug. – MVRV Z-score: 0.42 (8 Aug). Past bottoms printed Z below zero (2018, 2022). – Past bears have sometimes traded below realized price, so $40k isn’t impossible, but it would need a catalyst. ETF FLOWS – Nov 2025: −$3.48B outflows – Apr 2026: +$2.44B inflows – 21 Sept 2026: +$999M, biggest day of 2026 – Average ETF cost basis: ~$81.7k (Bloomberg estimate). ETF holders are roughly at breakeven. MACRO – Fed hiked to 3.75–4.00% on 16 Sept, its first hike since 2023. It held on 28 Oct, 10–2, with two members wanting another hike. – Markets price a possible December hike. Next FOMC: 8–9 Dec. – Oil above $100 and inflation above 2% keep the Fed cautious. – Past bottoms (2018, 2022) also came during tightening. A headwind, not a dealbreaker. MIDTERMS – 2018 and 2022 bottoms both came within weeks after the midterm vote. That’s timing evidence, not causation, and the sample is three elections. PROBABILITIES (my judgment, not a forecast) – Low already in: ~15% – Low 4 Nov to 31 Dec 2026: ~25% – Low Jan to Mar 2027: ~30% – Low after Q1 2027: ~30% – Trades below $40k before end-2027: ~20% WHAT WOULD CHANGE MY VIEW Bearish-later is wrong if: – Weekly close above ~$87k that holds – Several weeks of sustained ETF inflows – Dovish December FOMC that removes the hike pricing Bearish-later strengthens if: – Weekly close below $60k – Closing loss of realized price (~$52k) – ETF outflows resume in size WATCH LIST – Next 30 days: November CPI, ETF flow trend, whether $79k holds – Next 90 days: December FOMC, year-end flows, the $60k level – Next 180 days: Q1 2027 bottom window, MVRV behavior Analysis, not financial advice. #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Bearmarket #OnChain #MVRV #ETF #Macro #TechnicalAnalysis
— DarkMatter (@ShyamPurab) November 3, 2026
His main data points are:
- The long term log trend line sits near $78,000 today.
- Realized price is around $52,300.
- The MVRV Z-score was 0.42 on August 8, while past bottoms printed below zero.
- Average ETF cost basis is near $81,700, so ETF holders are close to breakeven.
- The Fed hiked to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16 and held on October 28.
He also notes that the 2018 and 2022 bottoms both formed within weeks after the midterm vote. He calls this timing evidence and not causation, since the sample covers only 3 elections.
| Scenario | DarkMatter’s Probability |
|---|---|
| Low already in | About 15% |
| Low from November 4 to December 31, 2026 | About 25% |
| Low from January to March 2027 | About 30% |
| Low after Q1 2027 | About 30% |
| Trades below $40,000 before end of 2027 | About 20% |
His view would change on a weekly close above $87,000 that holds, several weeks of steady ETF inflows, or a dovish December FOMC. A weekly close below $60,000 or a loss of realized price would strengthen his bearish case. His next checkpoints are November CPI, ETF flow trends, and whether $79,000 holds. His work is analysis and not financial advice.
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What Could Happen Next for Bitcoin After the Midterm Results
The two analysts disagree on the bigger picture but agree on the near term. Doctor Profit watches $76,000 as the line that decides the structure, and DarkMatter watches $79,000 over the next 30 days. Both also point to macro events, with the Fed meeting on December 8 and 9 as the next major date.
Bitcoin has already faced exchange failures, rate hikes, and election cycles before. The coming days will show whether $76,000 holds through the vote count and the earnings reports, or whether the market tests a lower zone first.
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