Bitcoin price is trying to stabilize near $78,000 after several difficult weeks, but one analyst believes the next major move higher could turn into a trap.
Macro analyst Henrik Zeberg argues that Bitcoin could still rally toward $115,000 before the broader bear market resumes.
His view is unusual because it is bullish in the short term and extremely bearish after that.
Zeberg called the expected move a “fool’s rally” and said Bitcoin holders could mistake it for the beginning of another major bull market.
What you'll learn 👉
Bitcoin Could Still Rally Almost 50%
Bitcoin is currently trading around $78,000, which means a move to Zeberg’s $115,000 target would represent upside of roughly 47%.
That would be more than enough to change market sentiment.
Bitcoin has already started recovering from the shock caused by the recent Binance hack, with BTC moving back toward $79,000 after briefly falling near $77,600.
Zeberg believes this recovery could eventually become much larger.
His chart labels the expected move as a Wave B bounce within a broader corrective structure.
In Elliott Wave theory, Wave B can be particularly dangerous because it can look like the beginning of a new bullish trend even though it remains part of a larger correction.
That is essentially the trap Zeberg is warning about.
Read also: Binance Hacker Now Holds More Bitcoin Than Tesla!
The Bitcoin Chart Shows a Bigger Problem
The monthly Bitcoin chart adds more context to his bearish argument.
Bitcoin has spent years moving along a rising trend line stretching back through previous market cycles.
Zeberg’s chart shows that trend being challenged after Bitcoin’s latest cycle peak.
At the same time, the monthly RSI has developed what he identifies as a multi-year negative divergence.
Bitcoin price has moved to much higher levels across successive cycles, but RSI peaks have gradually weakened.
That does not guarantee a crash, but it indicates that long-term momentum has not kept pace with price.
Zeberg also compares the present structure with Bitcoin’s earlier bear-market rallies, where strong rebounds occurred before another leg lower.
Why $115K Could Become the Trap
This is where his thesis becomes interesting.
A move from $78,000 to $115,000 would likely generate a completely different narrative around Bitcoin.
Calls for $150,000, $200,000 or even higher targets would almost certainly return if BTC broke above $100,000 again.
Zeberg believes that optimism is exactly what could make the move dangerous.
Instead of confirming a new bull cycle, he expects the rally to complete the corrective bounce before a much larger Wave C decline begins.
His chart shows an extreme downside scenario after that point, including a “best case” level near $16,000 and an even lower target zone.
Those targets would represent an extraordinary decline and should be treated as Zeberg’s long-term scenario rather than an established market expectation.
What Would Prove Zeberg Wrong?
The most important part of this setup is what happens if Bitcoin reaches the $100,000-$115,000 region.
If BTC breaks through that area and then continues producing higher highs and higher lows without losing its long-term structure, the “fool’s rally” thesis would become much harder to defend.
For now, however, Bitcoin remains below $80,000 and is still dealing with elevated interest rates, weaker risk appetite and the aftermath of the Binance hack.
Zeberg’s forecast therefore creates an unusual Bitcoin scenario:
The next big rally may not be the bullish confirmation investors are waiting for.
It could be the move that convinces them the bear market is over just before the real decline begins.
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