XRP price is close to a level that could decide whether the current weakness stays manageable or turns into something much worse.
Analyst Ali Martinez says the bearish case now rests on three things happening together: fewer large XRP holders, more tokens sitting on exchanges, and a clean break below $1.26.
If that support gives way, Martinez says the XRP price could first fall toward $1.11, with the broader channel structure pointing to roughly $0.98.
That would put XRP back below the $1 mark.
What you'll learn 👉
XRP Whales Are Cutting Exposure
Martinez points to the number of wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP.
That group has fallen from 351 wallets to 339 over the past few weeks.
The change is not huge in absolute terms, but these are very large holders, so even a relatively small drop in wallet count can matter.
At the same time, XRP balances on exchanges have moved from roughly 11.003 billion to around 11.05 billion.
That is about 50 million additional XRP sitting on trading platforms.
2/5 Some of the largest whales on the XRP Ledger appear to be reducing their exposure. The number of wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million $XRP has fallen from 351 to 339 over the past few weeks. That decline raises the possibility of growing selling pressure. https://t.co/xgh8WVtJrD
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 25, 2026
More XRP on exchanges does not prove those tokens will be sold.
But when exchange balances rise at the same time large-holder counts fall, the combination is worth watching because more supply may be available to hit the market.
XRP Price: $1.26 Is the Level That Could Break the Structure
Martinez’s technical argument is much cleaner than the whale data.
He identifies $1.26 as the lower boundary of a channel the XRP price has been building since August.
As long as that level holds, the bearish scenario is not confirmed.
If XRP breaks below it, Martinez maps $1.11 as the first downside target.
The larger channel structure then points toward $0.98.
From $1.26, that would be a decline of roughly 22%.
So the sequence is crucial:
$1.26 holds → bearish target remains unconfirmed.
$1.26 breaks → $1.11 comes into focus.
$1.11 fails → $0.98 becomes much more realistic.
Why Is the Whale Data More Important than Near Support
The whale data on its own would not be enough to call for sub-$1 XRP.
The technical break is what would make the setup more dangerous.
If large holders keep reducing exposure and exchange balances remain high while XRP loses $1.26, the market would have both a supply problem and a technical breakdown at the same time.
That is the scenario Martinez is warning about.
On the other hand, if XRP continues holding $1.26 and exchange balances stop rising, the bearish case weakens.
For now, $1.26 is the line that matters most.
The whale data may be adding pressure, but the chart still needs to confirm the move before $1.11 or $0.98 become serious targets.
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