Bitcoin and Ethereum enter the final week of October in a difficult position.
Bitcoin is trading around $80,400 after briefly slipping below $80,000, while Ethereum has fallen toward $2,330 after touching approximately $2,281 during the latest session.
Neither asset is showing a confirmed reversal yet.
The good news for bulls is that momentum indicators are no longer far from oversold conditions. The bad news is that both BTC and ETH continue to make weak recovery attempts, and the macro calendar becomes much more important this week.
The Federal Reserve meets on October 27-28, oil remains above $110, and large U.S. technology companies report earnings. Those three factors could set the direction for crypto through November 1.
What you'll learn 👉
Bitcoin Price Is Back Near $80,000
The Binance two-hour BTC chart shows Bitcoin around $80,397 after trading between roughly $79,179 and $81,000 over the latest 24 hours.
The larger structure has weakened considerably since BTC traded near $87,400 earlier in October.
The first level I would watch is $79,000-$80,000.
Bitcoin has already reacted from this region several times, so another defense would keep the current range alive.
Momentum remains weak.
The medium and longer RSI readings are both close to 42, which means Bitcoin is below neutral but not deeply oversold.
MACD is more interesting.
The MACD lines remain below zero, but the histogram has turned positive at roughly 92.8. That can happen when bearish momentum begins losing strength even though the broader trend has not yet turned bullish.
CCI around -55 tells a similar story. Bitcoin remains weak, but the latest selling wave has cooled somewhat.
There is also plenty of leverage still in the market. BTC liquidations were close to $185 million over the latest 24-hour period, and the long/short ratio near 0.96 shows positioning is relatively balanced but still slightly tilted toward shorts.
For me, $82,000-$82,500 is the first meaningful recovery test.
Above that, $84,000-$85,000 becomes possible again.
If Bitcoin loses $79,000, however, the recent low around $75,975 becomes the next major downside reference.
Ethereum Looks Weaker Than Bitcoin
Ethereum is trading around $2,331, with the latest 24-hour range stretching from approximately $2,281 to $2,372.
The ETH chart remains weaker than BTC.
Price has been producing lower highs since the October recovery toward $2,500, and the latest bounce from $2,281 has struggled to gain traction.
The RSI readings are around 37, 38 and 40 across the short, medium and longer settings.
That puts Ethereum closer to oversold conditions than Bitcoin.
MACD remains below zero, with DIF near -15.92 and DEA around -16.08. The positive histogram is very small, around 0.32, which indicates that bearish momentum may be easing, but there is still no strong bullish signal.
CCI around -79 also keeps ETH on the weak side of the range.
The most important support is $2,280-$2,300.
If that region holds, ETH could attempt a recovery toward $2,400.
Above there, $2,450-$2,500 becomes the next zone.
If $2,280 fails, I would watch roughly $2,200 first, followed by $2,100.
Ethereum also has a weaker institutional-flow backdrop than Bitcoin. U.S. spot ETH ETFs have lost roughly $350 million over the past seven days, and broader October flows have remained poor. Bitcoin ETFs, by comparison, still finished the latest week with roughly $300 million of net inflows despite heavy withdrawals on Thursday and Friday.
The Fed, Oil and Tech Earnings Could Decide the Week
The biggest event is Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision.
A Reuters poll found that 94 of 100 economists expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.75%-4.00% on October 28. However, all 100 economists in the survey expect another rate hike in December.
That means the rate decision itself may not move crypto as much as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments afterward.
If the Fed sounds comfortable waiting longer before another hike, Bitcoin and Ethereum could get some relief.
If Warsh stresses inflation risks and keeps December tightening firmly on the table, crypto could stay under pressure.
Oil is another problem.
Brent finished Friday around $116.72 after gaining more than 3% in one session as attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure raised fears of supply disruption. High oil feeds inflation concerns and makes the Fed’s job harder.
Then there is the stock market.
Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon report earnings this week. Crypto has traded closely with risk appetite during the recent AI-stock selloff, so another bad reaction to technology spending could spill into BTC and ETH.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Prediction for October 26-November 1
My base case is that both assets remain volatile around current support until the Fed meeting gives the market a clearer direction.
| Asset | Bullish scenario | Base case | Bearish scenario |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | Hold $79K-$80K → $82.5K → $84K-$85K | $79K-$83K | Lose $79K → $77K → ~$76K |
| Ethereum | Hold $2,280-$2,300 → $2,400 → $2,450-$2,500 | $2,280-$2,420 | Lose $2,280 → $2,200 → $2,100 |
Bitcoin looks slightly stronger than Ethereum because institutional flows have held up better and BTC is still GETTING capital relative to altcoins.
Ethereum, on the other hand, is closer to oversold territory and could produce a stronger percentage rebound if the macro environment improves.
For this week, I would watch four levels above everything else:
BTC: $79,000 and $82,500.
ETH: $2,280 and $2,400.
A break of either side should tell us whether this is another week of consolidation or the start of the next larger move.
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