Bitcoin is facing a difficult macro backdrop as Brent crude oil remains above $100 per barrel, with CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointing to a historical relationship between strong oil trends and weaker Bitcoin momentum.
The chart compares Bitcoin with Brent crude oil and Brent’s 365-day moving average going back to 2014. Darkfost’s argument is that Bitcoin has often struggled when Brent enters a sustained uptrend and trades above its annual average.
That condition is becoming relevant again, with Brent around $104 and its 365-day moving average turning higher.
What the Bitcoin vs. Brent Chart Shows
The grey areas on the chart mark periods when Brent traded above its 365-day moving average.
Several of those periods overlapped with weaker or slowing Bitcoin performance.
The most obvious examples came around 2018, parts of 2021-2022 and more recently in 2026. Oil strength did not automatically cause Bitcoin to fall in every case, but sustained moves above the annual Brent average have often coincided with a more difficult environment for BTC.
The current setup is therefore worth watching.
Brent has moved rapidly from roughly $60-$70 earlier in 2026 to above $100, and its long-term average has started turning upward after spending much of the previous few years in decline.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, remains below its previous highs after losing momentum during the latest risk-asset selloff.
That does not establish a direct causal relationship between the two assets. Oil is better viewed as a signal of the broader macro environment.
Read also: Global Debt Crisis: Could Bitcoin Benefit?
Why $100+ Oil Could Be a Problem for Bitcoin
The real problem for Bitcoin is what expensive oil can do to inflation and monetary policy.
Higher energy costs can push inflation expectations upward, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates. If inflation stays elevated, Treasury yields can remain high and liquidity conditions may stay restrictive.
That environment is generally less favorable for speculative assets such as Bitcoin.
There is also an important difference between a temporary oil spike and the setup CryptoQuant is monitoring.
If Brent quickly falls back below $100 and eventually loses its 365-day average, the macro pressure could ease.
If oil remains above $100 and the annual average continues rising, however, the historical pattern would become more relevant.
For Bitcoin, that does not necessarily mean another large crash is coming. The chart instead points to the possibility that BTC could struggle to build strong upside momentum as long as the oil trend remains elevated.
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