XRP is down roughly 25% from its August high, which leaves investors with little reason to celebrate its recent price performance. Yet longtime XRP community analyst Dark Defender argues that the decline is obscuring several developments taking place across the broader ecosystem.
In a recent post on X, he pointed to falling XRP balances on exchanges, the presence of Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin on the XRP Ledger (XRPL), and a roadmap for quantum-resistant cryptography. He also maintained that XRP’s current decline fits his Elliott Wave analysis, which anticipates a larger rally after the correction ends.
His argument is that XRP’s price tells only part of the story. But while these developments deserve examination, they do not necessarily mean a recovery is imminent.
What you'll learn 👉
XRP Is Down 25%, but Dark Defender Points to Three Developments
Dark Defender opened his post by acknowledging XRP’s decline from its August high before turning to what he believes the market is overlooking.
The analyst made three claims: XRP balances held on exchanges have fallen to a seven-year low near 1.7 billion tokens; approximately 88% of RLUSD liquidity is on the XRP Ledger; and XRPL has a published roadmap targeting quantum-safe cryptography by 2028.
He argued that these developments provide clues about the ecosystem’s long-term direction, even as XRP struggles in the market.
The figures and roadmap timeline are drawn from Dark Defender’s post and have not been independently verified here. They also describe different aspects of the ecosystem, so their implications for XRP’s price need to be considered separately.
Falling XRP Exchange Reserves Could Matter for Supply
Dark Defender’s first point concerns the amount of XRP held on cryptocurrency exchanges.
According to the analyst, exchange balances have declined to approximately 1.7 billion XRP, their lowest level in seven years.
XRP is down 25% from its August high. Fact.
— Dark Defender (@DefendDark) September 18, 2026
What the price does not show: #Reserves: exchange balances at a 7-year low, near 1.7 billion XRP. #RLUSD: 88% of all RLUSD liquidity on the XRP Ledger. #XRPL: a published roadmap to quantum-safe cryptography, targeted for 2028.…
Falling exchange reserves can attract attention because tokens held away from trading platforms may be less immediately available for sale. If demand rises while readily tradable supply is limited, that could contribute to stronger price movements.
However, exchange balances are not a direct measure of selling intentions. XRP can leave exchanges for custody, transfers between wallets or other operational reasons. The figures can also vary depending on which addresses a data provider identifies as belonging to exchanges.
More importantly, lower reported reserves have not prevented XRP from falling 25% from its August high.
The reserve trend may provide useful context about where tokens are held, but it does not establish that selling pressure has disappeared or that a supply-driven rally is about to begin.
RLUSD Activity Shows Ecosystem Development, Not Guaranteed XRP Demand
The analyst’s second point focuses on RLUSD, Ripple’s U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin.
Dark Defender claims that 88% of RLUSD liquidity is currently on XRPL. If accurate, that would indicate a substantial portion of the stablecoin’s liquidity is concentrated on the network.
Greater stablecoin activity could help XRPL develop as infrastructure for payments, trading and other financial applications. It may also bring more users and transactions to the ledger.
But there is an important distinction between adoption of XRPL and demand for XRP as an investment.
RLUSD and XRP are separate assets. Users can hold and transfer RLUSD without needing to buy a comparable dollar amount of XRP. XRP is used for transaction fees and certain network functions, but those fees are small, so higher activity does not automatically create enough token demand to drive a major price increase.
The more meaningful questions are whether RLUSD activity continues growing, whether it brings sustained use to XRPL and whether that activity creates measurable economic demand for XRP.
For now, the claimed liquidity concentration is an ecosystem metric rather than a direct XRP price catalyst.
XRPL’s Quantum-Safety Roadmap Looks Toward 2028
Dark Defender also drew attention to a published roadmap for quantum-safe cryptography, which he says targets 2028.
Quantum-resistant cryptography is an important area of research for blockchain networks. Powerful future quantum computers could threaten some of the cryptographic methods currently used to secure digital assets, making preparation a long-term infrastructure concern.
A roadmap would indicate that XRPL developers are considering how to address that risk before it becomes an immediate problem.
However, a targeted date is not the same as a completed network upgrade. Any transition would involve technical development, testing and decisions about implementation.
Nor does work on quantum resistance establish a direct connection to XRP’s near-term market value.
It is better understood as a potential long-term security improvement that could help the network remain viable as cryptographic standards evolve.
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