Gold has pushed above $4,390 an ounce as a weaker US dollar gives the metal room to recover, even as investors weigh hotter inflation risks and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike.
The dollar has fallen to a four-month low, giving the gold price a key source of support ahead of US PPI and CPI data. Markets are assigning about a 60% probability to a Fed rate hike on September 16, making Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI releases crucial for the next move.
Also, oil prices have reached their highest level in more than three months as US-Iran tensions intensify. With the gold price reacting from $4,364.60, analyst Rashad Hajiyev sees a path toward $4,900-$5,000 by early to mid-October.
What you'll learn 👉
Gold Price Chart Shows a Potential Breakout Pattern
We had a look at the chart, and the technical setup behind Hajiyev’s forecast is clear. Gold fell from the February-March highs above $5,500 toward a June-July base near $3,900-$4,000 before reversing higher in August. That recovery carried the gold price toward roughly $4,700 before sellers pushed it back toward the $4,300-$4,400 area.
My view on gold for the next 4-6 weeks with immediate target of $4.9 – 5k by early to mid October… pic.twitter.com/OPEpWaJ1Dc
— Rashad Hajiyev (@hajiyev_rashad) September 9, 2026
The latest structure resembles a symmetrical triangle, with a descending resistance line connecting the August high near $4,700 to lower highs around $4,500-$4,600.
Also, rising support connects the August and September lows, creating a narrowing range. The chart shows gold trading close to $4,390, almost directly around the middle of this structure. A breakout above the descending trendline would open the door toward $4,700 first, followed by the $4,900-$5,000 region marked by the analyst’s projected path.
Hajiyev’s forecast is therefore based on more than a round-number target. His chart maps several potential stages: $4,512, $4,566, $4,695.59, $4,770.72, $4,891 and finally $5,015.
From $4,390, a move to $5,000 would represent a gain of about 13.9%. The key requirement is for gold to escape the triangle and establish support above its previous resistance levels.
What Is Driving the Gold Price Right Now?
Ole Hansen’s analysis presents a more balanced picture. Gold is trapped between two competing forces: higher Treasury yields and stronger rate-hike expectations are pressuring the non-yielding metal, but a weaker dollar, resilient ETF and futures demand, and elevated geopolitical risk are helping limit downside pressure.
Gold rangebound as weaker dollar offsets rate-hike and inflation risks.
— Ole S Hansen (@Ole_S_Hansen) September 9, 2026
Gold traders – and the algorithmic programmes that account for a significant share of day-to-day activity – are currently struggling to determine which of several competing themes will ultimately set the… pic.twitter.com/2NsjNRVYKs
The inflation data could decide which force wins. Core PPI is forecast at 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.2%, with headline PPI expected at 0.4% versus 0.0% previously. US unemployment claims are forecast at 205,000, compared with 206,000 previously.
Core CPI is expected at 0.2% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year, compared with 2.5% previously for the annual figure. Headline CPI is projected at 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year.
Inflation Data Could Decide the Next Gold Price Move
The message from Hansen’s analysis is that gold needs a catalyst to escape its current range. A hotter-than-expected PPI or CPI reading could reinforce expectations for a Fed hike, keep Treasury yields elevated and make it harder for the gold price to break higher. That would leave the triangle intact and increase the importance of the lower trendline.
A softer inflation report would create the opposite setup. If inflation comes in below forecasts, markets could reduce rate-hike expectations, easing pressure from Treasury yields. Combined with the weaker dollar, that could give gold enough fuel to challenge the $4,512 and $4,566 resistance levels.
The geopolitical backdrop also matters. Intensifying US-Iran tensions and higher oil prices create additional inflation uncertainty, but they can also strengthen demand for gold as a portfolio diversifier. This leaves the September 16 Fed decision as the major event after this week’s data.
Related Gold Price: Gold Price Warning: A Supply Problem the Market Isn’t Ready For
Our Gold Price Prediction: $5,015 Is the Final Bullish Target
The gold price is reacting from $4,364.60, making $4,512 the first upside objective. A daily move through that level would put $4,566 next. If buyers push beyond $4,566, the chart points to $4,695.59, followed by $4,770.72.
A sustained break above those levels would strengthen the case for $4,891, with $5,015 becoming the final target in the bullish path. From $4,390 to $5,015, gold would need to rise approximately 14.2%.
The immediate risk is a breakdown below the rising support line around the $4,300-$4,350 region. For now, the technical structure keeps the $5,000 forecast alive, but inflation data and Treasury yields will determine whether the gold price can turn the projected path into an actual breakout.
Frequently Asked Questions
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for daily crypto updates, market insights, and expert analysis.
