XRP is back under selling pressure as the broader crypto market gives back part of its latest rebound. The XRP price has fallen roughly 3.5% today, trading around the $1.40 area, while Bitcoin and Ethereum are also correcting.
The weakness comes after a strong market-wide recovery earlier this week. Bitcoin briefly pushed above $82,000 before retreating, while XRP had participated strongly in the rebound.
There doesn’t appear to be an obvious negative XRP-specific news behind the latest decline. In fact, some of the recent news surrounding Ripple and XRP has been constructive. That makes the broader crypto pullback a more convincing explanation for today’s price action.
However, one analyst we regularly cover at CaptainAltcoin believes XRP’s technical structure now leaves room for a considerably deeper correction before the next major move.
CasiTrades has turned her attention to $1.10, arguing that what happens there could determine whether XRP is beginning a larger bullish reversal or still has another low ahead.
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CasiTrades Says $1.10 Is the Next XRP Price Level to Watch
CasiTrades’ latest analysis starts with the consolidation that has kept XRP underneath an important macro Fibonacci resistance for approximately two weeks.
Her chart shows the major 0.618 resistance around $1.64, with XRP unable to break through this area following its August rally.
More importantly, XRP has now lost the 0.5 retracement level around $1.34 in the structure she was monitoring.
That matters because CasiTrades had been using this level as the invalidation point for a cleaner Elliott Wave 4 setup. Under that scenario, XRP could have completed its correction before advancing relatively quickly toward approximately $1.77.
That route has become less convincing.
As CasiTrades explained:
“That easy, clean path up isn’t looking so clean anymore.”
Instead, she now considers a deeper retracement toward $1.10 more likely.
Why $1.10 Could Decide What Happens Next
The importance of $1.10 becomes clearer when looking at the chart.
CasiTrades identifies this region as the potential subwave 2 area, while it also overlaps with XRP’s broader macro 0.786 Fibonacci retracement.
The chart places several levels close together in this region, including approximately $1.09 and $1.06. That creates a broader support zone rather than one exact price where XRP must reverse.
From the current $1.40 area, a fall to $1.10 would represent another decline of roughly 21%.
Yet CasiTrades doesn’t necessarily view such a correction as bearish for the bigger picture.
Quite the opposite.
If XRP falls into the $1.10 region and buyers aggressively defend it, the reaction could provide evidence that a new macro uptrend is developing.
The logic is that a new bullish structure doesn’t require XRP to move vertically higher. A deeper Wave 2 correction can occur while leaving the broader recovery intact, provided the important structural support survives.
That’s why the reaction at $1.10 may matter more than simply whether XRP reaches it.
CasiTrades’ Chart Leaves $0.90 on the Table
The bullish interpretation becomes much harder to defend if $1.10 fails.
CasiTrades warns that losing this support would leave the door open for another XRP price decline toward approximately $0.90.
Her chart shows a substantial lower support area extending approximately from $0.86 to $0.94. Several Fibonacci levels also converge around this region, including roughly $0.94, $0.938 and $0.862.
Interestingly, CasiTrades isn’t merely presenting $0.94 as a technical possibility.
She said her own Coinbase buy order remains at $0.94.
For traders concerned about waiting for the perfect bottom and missing a reversal, however, she considers $1.10 another potential area to watch. One approach she discussed is splitting entries between the two regions rather than betting entirely on either outcome.
That isn’t a prediction that XRP definitely reaches $0.94. Her chart instead creates two major decision areas: around $1.10 first, followed by $0.90–$0.94 if the first one fails.
Read also: Ripple’s DTCC Connection Could Be Much Bigger Than XRP Holders Realize
XRP Still Has Major Resistance Above
The upside portion of the chart is equally important.
XRP would first need to reclaim the Fibonacci levels it has lost during the correction. The chart places the 0.382 retracement around $1.43, followed by a more substantial resistance area beginning around $1.53.
Above that sits the macro 0.618 level around $1.64.
This $1.53–$1.64 region is the green resistance zone shown prominently on CasiTrades’ chart. Breaking through it would materially improve the bullish structure and reopen the possibility of XRP progressing into higher Elliott Wave targets.
For now, though, the chart has XRP caught between resistance above and potentially much deeper support below.
RSI also isn’t providing an extreme signal. The indicator is hovering around the middle of its range, meaning XRP isn’t deeply oversold on the four-hour chart.
That leaves room for additional downside without requiring an immediate technical bounce.
XRP Ledger Payment Volume Jumps More Than 500%
Interestingly, XRP’s price weakness is occurring alongside a large increase in activity on the XRP Ledger.
A recent network snapshot showed payment volume jumping approximately 521.1% to around 488.4 million XRP.
At the same time, the number of payment transactions reportedly declined approximately 10.5%.
Taken together, those figures imply that considerably more XRP was moving through fewer individual payment transactions, meaning the average transaction size increased dramatically.
This is worth watching, but it needs an important qualification.
Large transactions do not automatically prove institutional adoption. A jump in average transfer size can come from exchanges, custodians, whales, internal wallet movements or institutional participants, among other sources. Without identifying the addresses involved, the data alone cannot tell us who generated the activity.
What it does show is that substantially more value was moving through XRPL payments during the measured period even as the raw transaction count declined.
Recent XRP News Hasn’t Been Particularly Bearish
That makes today’s XRP decline harder to attribute to a single negative fundamental catalyst.
The regulatory backdrop has improved considerably compared with previous years. The SEC issued a broader crypto-asset interpretation in March establishing a taxonomy that includes “digital commodities,” while the long-running Ripple enforcement case had already been resolved in 2025.
The precise regulatory treatment of individual assets still requires care, however, and broad claims that a new SEC order specifically declared XRP a digital commodity should be checked against the actual order rather than inferred from the taxonomy.
Ripple also just announced a major partnership with the University of Florida’s athletics program.
The multiyear agreement will put XRP branding on Florida Field, alongside broader digital properties and event signage. Ripple will also support financial and technology education for student-athletes and the wider university community. The Associated Press reported that the agreement is expected to generate approximately $5 million annually for Florida Athletics.
Those developments haven’t been enough to prevent today’s decline.
But that’s not especially surprising.
Crypto prices can fall despite positive project-specific news when Bitcoin and the broader market are correcting. XRP remains highly exposed to overall crypto liquidity, sentiment and risk appetite.
XRP Price May Need a Deeper Reset First
CasiTrades’ analysis changes the immediate XRP price outlook in an important way.
Previously, the cleaner bullish scenario offered a relatively direct route toward approximately $1.77. Losing the technical level she used to validate that structure means she is no longer relying on that path.
Now the focus turns downward first.
The $1.10 region is the main level to watch. A decline there followed by strong buying could provide the higher-time-frame confirmation CasiTrades is looking for and potentially lay the foundation for another attempt at $1.43, $1.53, $1.64 and eventually higher levels.
Losing $1.10 would make the situation considerably more difficult and bring the $0.90–$0.94 region into focus.
Our view is that the latest 3.5% decline doesn’t currently look like an XRP-specific fundamental breakdown. Bitcoin and Ethereum are correcting as well, while XRP has received several constructive ecosystem and regulatory developments recently.
The technical picture is less comfortable.
XRP has failed to clear major resistance and CasiTrades’ cleaner bullish structure has been invalidated according to the rules she was using. That gives the market room for another leg lower.
But a drop to $1.10 wouldn’t necessarily mean the larger recovery is over.
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