In our last Gold daily prediction, we said a break above $4,450 could open the door to $4,600, while holding $4,300 would keep the bullish recovery intact.
The Gold price followed the bullish path, rising more than 2% to around $4,491.55 as softer labor data, a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields reduced expectations for a September Fed rate hike.
Christopher Waller also indicated that he could support keeping rates unchanged if inflation continues to cool. With gold now trading inside the $4,471-$4,564 daily imbalance, the next question is whether buyers can reclaim the upper boundary or face rejection. With all of these factors in play, where can the gold price go today?
What you'll learn 👉
News That Could Push Gold Price Today
We got a taste of what’s coming from the ADP numbers on Wednesday, only 38,000 private-sector jobs added in August. That’s under the 47,000 people expected, and the weakest print we’ve seen since January.
Then there were the weekly unemployment claims: 206,000. A hair above the 205,000 forecast. Nothing crazy, but it keeps the door open.
Now everyone’s eyes are on the big one due today, Non-Farm Payrolls. The market’s bracing for 55,000 new jobs, after last month’s -23,000 disaster. Unemployment is supposed to hold steady at 4.1%. And wages? Hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% month over month, up from a paltry 0.1% before.
If the payroll number comes in soft, the dollar will likely take a hit. Same for Treasury yields. And when those two dip, gold usually gets a nice little lift.
Currency and geopolitical factors are also important. The U.S. Dollar Index fell around 0.4% on Thursday as the Japanese yen strengthened and Treasury yields eased, reducing pressure on gold.
The U.S.-Iran conflict remains a two-sided risk. Brent crude has moved above $97, raising inflation concerns that could support a hawkish Fed response, but comments from President Trump that U.S. attacks against Iran could be short-lived have reduced fears of a prolonged oil shock.
Related Gold News: Here’s Why Gold Price Is Getting Crashed Right Now
What Is the Gold Chart Showing?
We had a look at the chart, and the broader structure remains bullish after the price established a weekly low around $4,311 before recovering toward $4,483.62. The move from $4,311 to the current price represents roughly 4% upside, showing strong demand from the lower part of the recent range.
The key area now is the daily imbalance between $4,471 and $4,564. The gold price is trading inside this zone, and the reaction here could determine the next major move. The chart shows that the gold price previously broke lower from the $4,560 area, fell toward $4,311, and has now recovered back into that same zone. A rejection would give sellers a clear technical argument.
Above the imbalance, the next major reference is the weekly high at $4,786.92, followed by $4,899. The chart’s previous advance established higher highs and higher lows from the August base, so a clean move through $4,564 would place those upside levels back in view.
Where Will Gold Price Go Today?
Bullish path:
If gold pushes past $4,564 and stays there, buyers will probably aim for the weekly top at $4,786.92. Clear that, and $4,899 comes into play. From where we are now at $4,483.62, that’s a 9.2% climb.
Bearish path:
On the other side, if that $4,471–$4,564 zone acts like a ceiling, sellers get the upper hand again. They could drag the gold price down to $4,223. Break that floor, and $4,106 is next. That would be an 8.4% drop from the current price.
Base-case path:
Gold just bounces around inside that $4,471–$4,564 box until the U.S. jobs numbers land. As long as it stays above $4,471, the recovery story still has legs. But if it can’t get back over $4,564, then expect a slide toward $4,223 first, before any real push upward happens again.
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