Gold and silver prices are rallying again on Thursday, September 3, as traders reduce expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike following softer U.S. labor data and comments indicating that inflation pressures may be easing.
The move has been significant. Gold futures pushed close to $4,500 per ounce, while spot silver climbed back above $66. The chart circulating across social media shows both metals accelerating higher over the past 30 hours, alongside a claim that roughly $1.8 trillion has been added to their combined market value during that period.
The precise $1.8 trillion figure depends heavily on how above-ground gold and silver inventories are valued, so it is better treated as an estimate rather than a conventional market-cap calculation. But the underlying price move is real: gold was up more than 1% during Thursday’s session, while silver also advanced around 1% and briefly traded above $66.
The main reason is becoming clearer. Markets are reassessing just how aggressive the Fed will need to be at its September meeting.
What you'll learn 👉
Fed Rate Hike Expectations Are Cooling
Only days ago, precious metals were under considerable pressure as investors prepared for the possibility of another Fed rate hike.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks had raised concerns that persistent inflation (made worse by higher energy prices) could force the central bank to tighten monetary policy again.
That environment was particularly difficult for gold and silver.
Higher interest rates generally increase yields available on bonds and cash, making non-yielding assets such as precious metals comparatively less attractive.
But the macro picture has started to change.
New York Fed President John Williams said there was evidence that inflation continued to ease as the effects of tariffs faded. Importantly, he also indicated that the recent increase in energy prices was not spreading broadly into services inflation.
At the same time, fresh employment data came in relatively soft. U.S. private-sector employers reportedly added only 38,000 jobs in August, adding another reason for traders to question whether the economy requires additional monetary tightening.
The result has been a meaningful repricing of Fed expectations.
The social-media figure accompanying the gold and silver rally puts the probability of a rate increase at 50.4%, although live probabilities have been moving rapidly and differ depending on the time of observation. Other reports published Thursday showed probabilities ranging above 60% earlier in the session.
The direction matters more than any single intraday percentage: confidence in another Fed hike has weakened from its recent highs.
$1.80 TRILLION has been added to Gold and Silver Marketcap in the last 30 hours as Fed rate hike expectations drop to 50.4%. pic.twitter.com/RYhCQt04Ui
— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) September 3, 2026
Lower Treasury Yields and a Weaker Dollar Help Gold
The Fed story has spilled directly into two markets that matter enormously for precious metals: Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar.
Both moved lower as traders reconsidered the outlook for interest rates.
The U.S. Dollar Index fell around 0.4% to 99.21 during Thursday’s trading, while Treasury yields also retreated.
That’s a favorable combination for gold.
Because gold is priced globally in dollars, a weaker greenback makes it less expensive for buyers using other currencies. Lower bond yields also reduce the opportunity cost associated with holding an asset that pays no interest.
Gold consequently moved back above $4,400 and approached the psychologically important $4,500 level.
At one point Thursday, spot gold was around $4,436, while futures traded above $4,480. Later market analysis showed the gold price around $4,448 after testing the $4,500 region.
That represents an impressive recovery following three consecutive losing sessions.
Silver Price Follows Gold Above $66
Silver has participated in the rebound as well.
COMEX silver was up roughly 1.55% during Thursday’s session according to Shanghai Metals Market data, while other market reports placed spot silver around $65.94 and futures above $66.
The chart shows silver climbing from around $63.40 before eventually testing approximately $66.70, although prices have been volatile around those levels.
Silver often reacts more aggressively than gold when precious-metals sentiment improves because it combines monetary demand with substantial industrial demand.
That can work in both directions.
When yields rise and traders expect tighter monetary policy, silver can fall considerably. When those expectations ease, the silver price can recover quickly as traders reposition.
Read also: ChatGPT Predicts Silver and Gold Prices by the End of 2026
Middle East Developments Are Also Helping
There is another important piece of this rally: oil.
Renewed U.S.-Iran tensions recently sent energy prices higher, creating an unusual problem for precious metals.
Geopolitical conflict normally increases safe-haven demand for gold. But soaring oil prices can also increase inflation, which in turn raises the probability of tighter Fed policy.
That second effect had been weighing on gold.
President Donald Trump’s comments indicating that the latest military action involving Iran was likely to be relatively short-lived helped ease concerns that energy prices could remain elevated indefinitely. Oil’s rally subsequently cooled.
Brent was trading around $95 per barrel Thursday, with prices slightly lower during part of the session.
That has given gold an unusual combination of supportive factors: geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated, but fears of a prolonged oil-driven inflation shock have eased somewhat.
Why Gold and Silver Are Exploding Right Now
The rally therefore isn’t being driven by one isolated event.
Several macro forces have started moving in favor of precious metals at the same time.
Softer employment data has reduced the urgency for tighter monetary policy. Williams’ comments have eased concerns about persistent inflation. Treasury yields have come down, the dollar has weakened, and fears surrounding an extended oil-driven inflation shock have moderated.
That combination has encouraged investors to return to gold and silver after their recent selloff.
The next major test arrives quickly.
Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report could materially alter expectations for the September Fed meeting. Markets are already positioning ahead of that release, which helps explain the volatility around both metals.
A weak employment report could further reduce expectations for another rate increase, potentially providing additional support for precious metals.
A surprisingly strong report could do the opposite.
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