Gold price has been trading in a narrow range between $4,000 and $4,100 over the past few days. The metal is up 1.2% today and is poised to gain more than 2.2% in July, which makes its strongest monthly performance since February and its first monthly advance after four consecutive months of declines. At press time, spot gold is trading near $4,096.29 per ounce.
One analyst I like to follow when it comes to gold price analysis, Otavio Costa, just updated his thoughts on gold’s outlook. His take is worth paying attention to.
What you'll learn 👉
Otavio Costa: A Hawkish Fed Is Already Priced In
Otavio Costa, a macro strategist and partner at Crescat Capital, posted a tweet that cuts to the heart of the gold debate. He wrote:
“If this is the hawkish Fed we were promised, imagine what a dovish Fed could look like. Keep in mind: The market is still pricing in a 65% probability of a rate hike next month and roughly a 50% chance of two hikes by January. I find that highly unlikely — and a potential major tailwind for metals.”
Costa’s point is simple but powerful. The market is pricing in more rate hikes than are likely to materialize. If the Fed ends up being less hawkish than expected, or if it eventually pivots to cuts, the upside for gold could be significant.
This aligns with his broader view. Costa has been arguing that gold is forming a significant bottom and that the selloff could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of the cycle. He sees the structural case for hard assets as no longer a fringe view, with a medium-term price target of $4,500 to $5,500 per ounce.
Peter Schiff: The Dollar Is Falling, Gold Is Rising
Peter Schiff, the long-time gold believer, also weighed in on the current setup. He tweeted:
“The U.S. dollar is falling sharply, briefly trading below 100, and gold is up again, now trading above $4,100, the day after Warsh chose to continue the inflationary monetary policies of the past rather than adopt the more hawkish approach he had previously asserted he would.”
The dollar index fell nearly 0.90% to 99.90 on Thursday, its biggest single-day drop since January 2023. A weaker dollar is typically bullish for gold because it makes the metal cheaper for holders of other currencies.
The U.S. dollar is falling sharply, briefly trading below 100, and gold is up again, now trading above $4,100, the day after Warsh chose to continue the inflationary monetary policies of the past rather than adopt the more hawkish approach he had previously asserted he would.
— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) July 30, 2026
Schiff has been vocal about his view that rising yields driven by a loss of confidence in the Fed are actually bullish for gold, not bearish. He argues that gold is the last safe haven standing and that the current correction is masking a buying opportunity.
Gold Chart Analysis: Gold Forming a Base
The attached daily chart shows gold’s price action from February through July 2026. The metal rallied sharply in early 2026, peaking above $5,400 before entering a multi-month correction. The decline brought gold down to test the $4,000 level multiple times, with each test holding.
Key observations from this gold chart:
- Support at $4,000: The psychological $4,000 level has acted as a floor. Each test has been met with buyers.
- Resistance at $4,100: The current trading range is capped by resistance near $4,100. A break above this level would be the first bullish signal.
The gold price action indicates that gold is forming a base after a steep correction. Costa’s call that gold is forming a significant bottom aligns with the chart’s structure.
Read also: Gold Price Warning: Analyst Says $4,100 Pump Could Be a “Trap” – Here’s Why
What the Fed Really Means for Gold
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its July meeting. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave little indication on the central bank’s next policy move, prompting traders to dial back expectations of a September rate hike. Markets are now pricing in a 63% chance of a rate hike in September, down from about 80% before the policy meeting.
This is big for gold. Lower expectations of higher interest rates tend to support gold because the precious metal does not offer any yield. If the Fed’s next move ends up being a cut rather than a hike, the tailwind for gold could be substantial.
Geopolitical uncertainty also continues to underpin bullion prices. A drone strike on gas vessels in Egypt’s Mediterranean port signaled a potential new front in the U.S.-Iran war, which raises the prospect of threats to navigation through the Suez Canal. Meanwhile, global gold demand remained steady in the second quarter as central banks sped up purchases.
My Take on Gold Price Forecast: Cautious Optimism
I am holding gold, but I am not too optimistic about gold price action in the coming few months. In general, gold price action has been pretty bad this year, which was expected when you look at the previous year when the metal was booming.
The rotation of capital into crypto could be a smart play if we see some glimpse of a new bull market toward the end of 2026. But for gold, the short-term outlook remains uncertain.
What I am watching:
- $4,000 support: As long as gold holds above this level, the bulls are still in the game.
- $4,100 resistance: A break above this level would be the first sign of strength.
- The Fed: If rate cut expectations continue to build, gold could rally toward $4,300-$4,500.
- The dollar: The dollar’s decline is a major tailwind. If the dollar breaks below 100 decisively, gold could move significantly higher.
- Short-term (next few weeks): Gold is likely to continue consolidating between $4,000 and $4,100. A break above $4,100 could trigger a move to $4,200.
- Medium-term (rest of 2026): If the Fed pivots or the dollar continues to weaken, gold could reach $4,300-$4,500. Costa’s $4,500-$5,500 target is ambitious but not impossible.
- Long-term: Schiff’s $5,000+ gold is possible if the macro environment deteriorates. But that is not my base case.
For now, I am holding gold but not adding to my positions. The risk-reward is neutral. I want to see a break above $4,100 and confirmation from the Fed before committing more capital.
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