The Euro-dollar ($EURUSD) pair is finally perking up after months of getting hammered. At 1.1488, it’s crawled back from its June low, but it’s nowhere near the 1.20 level it touched earlier this year.
That leaves a big gap between today’s price and what many forecasters were predicting. So the next few months might actually decide something.
So is this the real deal, or just a breather before another leg down? That depends on central bank moves, inflation data, and whether the dollar keeps flexing.
What you'll learn 👉
EUR/USD’s Current Price Action
We pulled up the EUR/USD chart, and it’s bounced back nicely since bottoming around 1.1330 in late June. Buyers have defended that 1.1300–1.1360 zone multiple times over the past month, stopping things from falling apart and setting up this latest rally. That push has taken the pair back to 1.1480, just a hair away from the big 1.1500 level.
But it hasn’t been a straight shot up. Back in mid-July, after hitting 1.1480, sellers stepped in and knocked it down. There was a bearish engulfing candle on the higher timeframe, a clear warning that buyers were running out of steam. That sent prices back toward the bottom of the range before buyers showed up again.
Now it’s climbed back most of the way, but 1.1500 is still the wall in front of it. If it closes above that with conviction, the bulls have a real case, and the July highs come back into play. If it can’t break through, we’re probably stuck in this sideways range a bit longer.
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What Analysts Are Forecasting for Year-End
Nobody agrees on where the $EURUSD price will end up this year. LiteFinance says the next big wall is 1.1780–1.1810, and if that breaks, 1.20 comes into view.
WalletInvestor thinks the euro will top 1.20 by year-end too. But LongForecast and Gov Capital figure the pair drifts back toward 1.10, with the dollar keeping the upper hand.
A lot depends on the Fed. They left rates at 3.50% — 3.75%, and Chair Warsh said higher Treasury yields have already done some of their work, so no need for another hike right now. He also made it clear inflation is still above their 2% target, and they’re playing it by ear, no set path, just watching the data.
BREAKING: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says the Fed didn't need to raise rates today because the bond market already did the job for it.
— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) July 29, 2026
Here's what he said:
– Inflation is still above the Fed's 2% goal. The Committee says it will deliver price stability, no exceptions.
– There is no… pic.twitter.com/jkw990Knge
That gives us two possibilities. If Treasury yields drop and the market starts betting on rate cuts, the dollar could weaken enough for the euro to test 1.1780–1.1810. But if inflation stays stubborn and yields hold up, the dollar keeps rolling, and those 1.10 forecasts start looking a lot more believable.
Why the Gap Exists: The USD Side of the Story
The dollar lost some steam after the Fed hit pause on rate hikes, which gave the euro room to bounce off its June lows. The numbers out of the U.S. helped too.
Second-quarter GDP came in at 1.5%, below the 2.1% people were expecting, so that took some wind out of the dollar’s sails. Weekly jobless claims landed at 197,000, healthy enough, but nothing that screams overheating.
Over in Europe, the ECB stuck with its current plan, though they’re still keeping an eye on energy prices. Oil has come down, which took some pressure off inflation worries and curbed demand for the dollar as a safe bet.
That gave the euro some breathing room. Still, that 1.1500 level keeps stopping any real push higher, and that’s the first thing buyers have to clear.
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EURUSD Price Key Levels to Watch
The whole recovery rests on that 1.1300–1.1360 zone. Keep the euro above that, and buyers keep control.
Pull up the bigger picture, and June gave us something useful, it closed above 1.1390, a quarterly level that had been stopping price since August 2025.
That’s a good sign for the bulls. Next up is 1.1840 on the monthly chart; that could put up a fight. Break that, and the quarterly chart points to 1.20 as the next big one.
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EUR/USD Price Prediction: What’s Next?
The charts and the broader picture both point higher, but it probably won’t be a straight line. As long as the price holds above 1.1300–1.1360, the recovery stays on track. And if it can finally crack 1.1500 and hold, that opens the door to 1.18 in the months ahead.
The monthly level at 1.1840 is likely the first real test. If buyers absorb whatever selling shows up there, then 1.20 on the quarterly chart becomes a realistic target before the year wraps up. A lot comes down to U.S. inflation numbers, what happens with Treasury yields, and whether the market starts betting on the Fed cutting rates later this year.
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