Silver’s had a rough week. It broke below that $60 level and is now trading around $58.50, down about 4% to 6% in just seven days.
The U.S.-Iran war pushed oil prices up, which got people worried about inflation again. And that means the Fed might not cut rates anytime soon. So silver got sold off along with other risk assets.
Earlier this month, silver was up near $62. Now it’s down 17.4% for the year so far. And gold is holding up better, the gold-to-silver ratio is around 69.4, which tells you silver has taken a bigger hit.
Now traders are watching for one rare technical signal. It could tell us a lot about where silver goes from here.
What you'll learn 👉
Why Silver’s Death Cross Has Traders Watching Closely
Analyst Oren Elbaz says silver is about to form a death cross. That’s when the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day moving average.
A lot of technical traders see that as a bad sign, it usually means momentum has turned negative, and it can trigger more selling from people who follow trends.
The chart backs that up. The 50-day average has been falling toward the 200-day as silver keeps making lower highs and lower lows. There’s also a downward trendline that’s blocked every rally attempt since May. And that $58 support level is becoming more and more important.
But here’s the thing, a death cross doesn’t always mean more downside. Elbaz pointed out that the silver price formed the same pattern in early 2024, and then took off on a strong rally.
Gold just had a death cross on June 30 too, so silver is the next one in line. History shows these signals often show up near the end of a correction, not the beginning. That’s why people will be watching closely over the next few days.
The Biggest Catalysts That Could Move the Silver Price This Week
The silver price faces one of its busiest macroeconomic weeks in months. Tuesday brings the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the start of major bank earnings, and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could strengthen the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, putting fresh pressure on precious metals. A softer report could have the opposite effect by boosting expectations for future rate cuts.
The market will also digest China’s GDP figures, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), the Federal Reserve’s latest economic update, weekly jobless claims, and Friday’s U.S. trade price data.
Since China is the world’s largest industrial consumer of silver, stronger economic data could improve demand expectations. At the same time, weaker U.S. labor or inflation data may support the XAG price by reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing costs elevated.
Related Silver News: Silver Price Recovers as Weaker Dollar Boosts Precious Metals Demand
Silver Price Prediction: Where Could XAG Go Next?
For things to turn around, silver needs to hold $58 and push back above $60. If inflation numbers cool off and the dollar loses some strength, buyers could run it up to $61.50, maybe even test $62 again.
Most likely, we’re stuck between $58 and $60 for most of the week. Everyone’s waiting on the full batch of data, inflation, jobs, Fed signals, before they make any big moves.
The bad case is if that death cross actually happens and U.S. inflation comes in hot. If $58 breaks, $56 is next. And if selling really picks up, $54 is the floor after that.
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