In our last week Cardano price weekly prediction, $0.16 was the level buyers needed to defend to keep recovery hopes alive. We noted that holding above that support, alongside catalysts such as Leios testnet progress, could open the door to the 100-day SMA near $0.2369.
That never happened. Instead, the ADA price lost $0.16, extended its existing downtrend, and moved into the bearish scenario we outlined, with the price now trading around $0.144, close to the next key support near $0.15.
Cardano is down 2.09% over the past 24 hours, underperforming the broader crypto market as a technical breakdown below the $0.19–$0.20 zone accelerated selling pressure and kept buyers firmly on the defensive.
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News Driving Cardano’s Price Action
One positive development came from EMURGO following the SecondFi wallet exploit that drained roughly 16 million ADA, worth about $2.4 million, from 374 wallets between June 21 and June 23.
The investigation has been completed, a recovery solution has been identified, and refunds are expected to begin within two weeks after one week of development and another week of testing. Law enforcement has also been notified, helping limit reputational damage to the ecosystem.
Cardano’s Van Rossem hard fork also moved a step closer after Delegated Representatives approved Protocol Version 11 with 62.76% support, clearing the required 60% threshold. About 87% of network nodes have already upgraded, with final approval from stake pool operators and the Constitutional Committee still pending. If approved, activation could take place as early as July 3 or July 8.
Another catalyst remains on the regulatory front. The path toward a U.S. spot ADA ETF depends on greater regulatory clarity and stronger CME futures activity. If the CLARITY Act classifies ADA as a commodity and futures trading continues to mature ahead of the August 9 seasoning deadline, institutional demand could improve through a regulated ETF structure.
Cardano Chart Analysis
We had a look at the ADA chart and found the broader trend remains firmly bearish. Since April, the Cardano price has continued printing lower highs and lower lows, with every recovery failing below previous resistance levels.
The breakdown below $0.16 has strengthened seller control and pushed ADA close to fresh monthly lows.
Related Cardano News: ADA Price at Risk: Cardano’s Breach and This Signal Set Up a Bull Trap
The momentum readings still lean bearish, but the selling isn’t as heavy as before. RSI is around 44, under the midpoint,buyers haven’t taken back control.
The MACD finally inched above zero after being negative for a long stretch. That tells us the downside is losing steam, but we can’t call it a turn yet.
The main floor to watch is $0.14. If sellers keep pushing, $0.10 is the next big level down. Up top, $0.15 is the first hurdle. Past that, $0.16 is a tough wall after last week’s drop below it. The ADA price needs to reclaim both levels before the chart begins to improve.
Cardano Price Forecast: Targets for This Week
The likely case is for the ADA price to trade between $0.14 and $0.15. With weak momentum and the whole market still sliding, Cardano looks stuck in place for another week, unless buyers show up with heavier volume.
The bullish picture only starts if ADA climbs back above $0.15 and punches through $0.16. First stop would be $0.17. Next up, $0.18 becomes the target if the Van Rossem hard fork gets people feeling confident again.
The bearish side kicks in if $0.14 gives way. That could drop the ADA price to $0.13. And if selling keeps up, $0.10 could come into view later in the week.
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