A June rate cut from the Federal Reserve is still possible, but traders are clearly not expecting it right now. Polymarket data shows a 97.65% chance that rates stay unchanged, with only a 1.35% probability of a 25 basis point cut.
That’s a major change from earlier this year when markets were pricing in multiple cuts for 2026. Expectations cooled after inflation data stayed hotter than expected and the labor market remained fairly stable. Some CME-linked market trackers even showed rate hike odds getting close to cut probabilities at one stage during the spring.
That said, the door is not fully closed. If inflation starts cooling again or economic growth weakens more aggressively, economists still believe the Fed could pivot. For now though, the base case remains a pause unless the next inflation or jobs reports materially change the picture.
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Bitcoin price prediction if the Fed cuts
In case the Fed manages to surprise the market with another rate cut in the amount of 25 bps, the BTC price might be able to bounce back pretty quickly. In general, cuts in rates are known to be able to boost the overall liquidity situation, hence increasing the attractiveness of risky assets.
In such a case, it is quite possible that the price of the BTC asset might return to the range around $83,000-$86,000 in rather quick succession, provided that buyers manage to regain control of the territory above $82,500. It might positively influence the entire cryptocurrency market.
Otherwise, if the Fed decides to keep the interest rate unchanged at the upcoming meeting, Bitcoin may stay locked within the range from about $79,000 to $82,500.
The Bitcoin chart still shows some warning signs
We have checked the Bitcoin price chart; we can see that the overall trend remains healthy. Starting from late March, the BTC price rose from a low near $66,000-$68,000 to a high near $82,000, registering a rise of more than 20%.
The significant level currently being eyed by the traders is the 100-period SMA level at $79,693. It is worth mentioning here that the Bitcoin is trading above the level, thus maintaining the positive setup in place.
That said, the market momentum has definitely lost steam. Several bearish divergences in the RSI chart can be noticed during the month of May, which are known to happen when prices are moving up while the strength is becoming weak. At present, the RSI is trading at 46, meaning that the market has lost its bullish momentum.
That does not automatically mean a crash is coming. It mainly suggests the BTC price may need more consolidation before attempting another breakout.
Why the Fed matters so much for the BTC price
One of the major macro factors continuing to have significant weight for the crypto market is interest rate levels since they influence market liquidity and investor sentiment towards risk. In case borrowing gets easier, market participants typically become more inclined to get back into positions such as Bitcoin.
On the other hand, in case interest rates continue to remain higher, markets will remain on the defensive side. This is also partly why Bitcoin’s performance has been slowing after its impressive rally this year.
The BTC price remains relatively steady above the $79,000 mark. Being able to maintain that position means the bullish trend will continue to move unabated. A decline to below that point could see the focus shift towards areas within the $77,000-$78,000 range.
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