XRP price is now trading around $1.3 after sliding sharply from its July 2025 high near $3.6. That represents a decline of more than 60% in less than a year. The broader crypto market has struggled alongside Bitcoin, yet the structure on the Ripple chart now places XRP at a critical crossroads.
The next few days could determine whether XRP price stages a recovery toward $2 or continues its descent toward the psychological $1 level.
The $2 region once acted as a long-standing support zone for XRP. That level held firm for more than 2 years, absorbing repeated sell pressure until January 2026. Once price broke below that range, the technical picture changed.
Former support at $2 has now become resistance. XRP attempted to reclaim it, but each bounce faded below that barrier. That failure reinforced the bearish structure. The decline since then has been steady and controlled, not chaotic, which often signals sustained downside pressure.
The chart now shows XRP trading inside a descending channel. Each rally has formed a lower high. Each drop has carved out a lower low. No major horizontal support stands out until the $1 region comes into view.
Regulatory And Supply Factors Could Influence XRP Price Direction
Several non technical forces could shape the next move for Ripple and XRP.
Regulatory clarity remains one of the biggest variables. The proposed CLARITY Act, which could reclassify digital assets such as XRP as commodities, may improve institutional confidence if passed. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has previously expressed optimism about regulatory progress. European MiCA compliance and Japan’s 20% crypto tax rate also support global usage expansion.
Supply mechanics matter as well. Ripple unlocked 1 billion XRP from escrow on February 1, 2026 as part of its monthly release cycle. Exchange balances have reportedly declined significantly since early 2025, tightening tradable supply. ETF holdings now exceed 793 million XRP, and ongoing DeFi lockups further reduce circulating availability.
Institutional activity has added another layer. XRP ETFs have attracted around $1.3 billion in inflows since late 2025. Ripple’s Luxembourg EMI license, partnerships with Japanese banks, and developments tied to RLUSD and wrapped XRP on Solana continue to expand utility.
However, sentiment remains fragile. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 5 out of 100. That extreme fear environment can amplify volatility on both sides.
Technical Indicators Currently Favor A Move Toward $1
Momentum indicators currently lean bearish. The table below summarizes the latest readings.
| Name | Value | Action |
|---|---|---|
| RSI(14) | 34.094 | Sell signal, showing weak momentum near oversold territory |
| STOCH(9,6) | 19.97 | Oversold condition, yet no confirmed bullish reversal |
| MACD(12,26) | -0.103 | Bearish crossover remains active |
| ADX(14) | 40.494 | Strong trend strength supporting current downtrend |
| CCI(14) | -137.2831 | Deep negative reading, confirming selling pressure |
| Ultimate Oscillator | 36.48 | Bearish bias remains intact |
RSI sits near oversold territory but has not shown a decisive reversal. MACD remains negative. ADX above 40 signals a strong trend, and that trend currently favors sellers. CCI readings below -100 confirm sustained downward pressure.
The broader chart structure adds to that concern. XRP continues to trade within a descending channel and lacks a clear support floor above $1. If Bitcoin price continues to struggle, the path toward $1 and possibly below could become increasingly likely.
Psychological support at $1 carries weight. XRP traded near that range for years during previous consolidation phases. A breakdown below $1 would reopen that historical territory and alter the longer-term outlook.
Read Also: Here’s the $SOL Price If Solana Matches Ethereum’s Market Cap
Recovery above $2 would change the structure entirely. That would require reclaiming former support and invalidating the descending channel. At present, the technical and sentiment backdrop leans toward caution.
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