The XRP price is trading around $1.40, after dipping 3.5% today. On the surface, price action looks bearish. Underneath, derivatives data and state-level legislation are telling a much bigger story.
Crypto analyst Chad Steingraber shared XRP’s Open Interest structure on X, and pointed out a pattern that has repeated multiple times in the past. At the same time, Arizona lawmakers have moved forward with a bill that explicitly includes XRP in a proposed state strategic reserve.
One is a technical signal. The other is structural demand.
Together, they are worth exploring.
What you'll learn 👉
The Open Interest Pattern That Keeps Repeating
The chart shows XRP price in yellow and Open Interest in green. When Open Interest expands, price tends to follow in a similar direction. The relationship has been visible across several major moves.
In late 2023, Open Interest began rising steadily before XRP pushed higher. The same pattern appeared again mid-2024, when Open Interest spiked aggressively ahead of a sharp rally toward the $3.50 zone.
Each time Open Interest built up, price eventually responded.
Right now, Open Interest sits near $2.33 billion while XRP trades around $1.40. After a steep drop in both price and OI following the summer highs, the market has entered a compression phase. Historically, these compression zones have preceded expansion moves.
The key insight from Steingraber’s post is simple: when Open Interest begins climbing again from low or stabilized levels, XRP tends to move with it. Open Interest represents capital committed in futures markets. Rising OI signals new positions entering the market, not just price drifting on thin liquidity.
If OI turns upward decisively from here, history shows XRP often follows.
Why Is Open Interest Important?
Open Interest measures the total number of active futures contracts. When it rises alongside price, it usually indicates fresh long positioning. When it rises while price stalls, it can signal leverage building ahead of a breakout.
The chart shows that the XRP price rarely moves in isolation from its derivatives market. Strong expansions in Open Interest have coincided with strong directional moves.
Currently, price has cooled significantly from prior highs, but OI remains elevated relative to earlier cycles. That combination suggests capital is still engaged rather than abandoning the asset.
If OI begins another leg higher, traders will likely watch for acceleration in spot price.
Arizona SB1649: A Structural Catalyst
Traders focus on charts, but lawmakers are making moves that could have long-term implications.
Arizona’s SB1649 has passed Senate Finance, and XRP is explicitly eligible alongside Bitcoin in the proposed state strategic reserve framework. This marks one of the first multi-asset sovereign-style reserve structures at the state level in the United States.
The significance goes beyond symbolism.
arizona SB1649 just passed senate finance with XRP explicitly eligible alongside bitcoin for state strategic reserve. first multi-asset sovereign reserve structure in US. missouri HB 2080 has 5-year mandatory hold. states are accumulating during fear index at 9 while federal…
— aixbt (@aixbt_agent) February 23, 2026
State-level reserves introduce the concept of public-sector balance sheets holding digital assets not just as investments, but as strategic components. Missouri’s HB 2080 reportedly includes a five-year mandatory hold provision, reinforcing the idea that these allocations are not short-term trades.
If implemented, this creates non-speculative demand.
That demand operates independently of ETF flows. It represents sovereign-style accumulation rather than fund rotation.
ETF Momentum and Sovereign Bid
Another key data point circulating is that XRP ETFs reached $1 billion in assets under management faster than Ethereum ETFs did. That signals strong investor appetite for structured XRP exposure.
Now, with state-level legislation progressing during a broader fear index reading near extreme lows, accumulation appears to be happening during pessimistic conditions.
When institutional, ETF, and potential sovereign bids align during weak sentiment phases, it often creates asymmetric setups.
Read also: Solana Just Lost the RWA Crown to XRP Ledger as RLUSD Explodes Past $1B
The Bigger Picture
On the technical side, XRP’s Open Interest history shows a consistent relationship between capital inflows in derivatives markets and subsequent price expansion.
On the structural side, Arizona’s move to include XRP in a state reserve framework signals a shift in how digital assets are being viewed at the government level.
Price is currently subdued compared to prior highs. Open Interest remains engaged. Legislative momentum is building at the state level.
If derivatives capital starts expanding again and structural demand materializes, the next move may not remain quiet for long.
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