XRP price discussions often flare up during quiet market periods. That happened again after a blunt exchange involving Ripple CTO David ‘JoelKatz’ Schwartz. The conversation cut straight through optimism and focused on something many avoid. Probability. Market behavior. Reality.
The result was not dramatic language or bold forecasts. It was a clear explanation of why XRP price sitting far below $10 matters more than social media predictions of $50 or $100.
What you'll learn 👉
David Schwartz Explains Why XRP Price To $100 Lacks Broad Conviction
David Schwartz responded to a comment urging him to tell XRP holders that extreme price targets are unrealistic. His reply avoided emotional framing. He openly stated that XRP price reaching $100 is unlikely in his view. He also stressed discomfort with making absolute claims, since past market behavior often surprises.
Schwartz shared personal context. He once believed XRP price reaching $0.25 was improbable. He sold XRP at $0.10 because the valuation felt excessive at the time. History later proved that assumption wrong. Bitcoin followed a similar pattern, since $100 once felt unreachable.
That background mattered. Schwartz was not dismissing upside potential entirely. He was addressing confidence levels and how markets reveal them.
Market Pricing Shows How Few Truly Expect XRP Price At $100
The core of Schwartz’s argument focused on simple market logic. If a meaningful number of rational investors believed there was even a 10% chance XRP price could reach $100 within a few years, behavior would change fast.
Those investors would stop selling XRP below $10. Buying pressure would rise quickly. Available supply at lower prices would dry up. That has not happened.
But I will say this:
— David 'JoelKatz' Schwartz (@JoelKatz) January 29, 2026
If many rational people believed that there was a 10% chance that XRP hit $100 within a few years, they definitely wouldn't sell very much today at much less than $10. Those with that belief would quickly buy up most of the XRP, because they'd value it more…
XRP price remaining well under $10 signals something important. Very few participants truly believe in a realistic path to $100 within that timeframe. Schwartz stated clearly that anyone claiming otherwise is not being truthful about what markets show.
This was not theory. This was basic valuation math applied to current trading behavior.
XRP Price Reflects Probabilities More Than Narratives
Schwartz pushed back against the idea that crypto prices are detached from logic. He stated that most cryptocurrency prices are rational most of the time. Prices tend to reflect realistic assessments of future outcomes and probabilities.
Major bull runs often came from unpredictable external changes. Regulatory shifts. Structural market changes. New adoption channels. These events were not widely priced in beforehand.
XRP price today does not show evidence of a market expecting a $100 outcome. That does not mean growth is impossible. It means current pricing reflects limited conviction around extreme targets.
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Ripple as a company continues enterprise development. XRP as an asset trades independently based on demand, liquidity, and expectations. Schwartz’s comments reinforced that distinction without sugarcoating it.
XRP price will not rise because enough people want it to. Markets require capital commitment. Belief without action leaves no footprint on price.
Schwartz did not issue warnings or predictions. He explained how markets expose belief through behavior. XRP price staying far below $10 tells a story about probability assessment, not about failure.
Future outcomes depend on real changes, not recycled targets. Price movements follow conviction backed by capital, not repetition.
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