The debate around XRP’s real available supply picked up again this week, and it’s happening for a pretty simple reason: analysts are starting to question whether there’s actually enough liquid XRP to meet growing the ETF demand.
The conversation was sparked by comments highlighted by TheCryptoBasic, where market analyst Dean Rector raised doubts about the widely quoted “60 billion circulating supply.” According to him, the actual amount of XRP that’s truly available for trading could be far lower.
Rector pointed out that XRP ETFs already hold more than 300 million XRP, which is significant when you consider how much of the total supply is locked up, held long-term, or sitting on exchange reserves.
He noted that the effective float might even be below 10 billion XRP. That led to a wave of community responses, with some estimating that retail might collectively own around 3 billion XRP while major exchanges could hold between 5 and 10 billion. The wildcard is OTC and dark-pool liquidity, nobody really knows how deep that supply goes.
Even with the different estimates, most people agreed on one thing: the liquid supply that ETFs can actually access is nowhere near the numbers seen on supply trackers. That immediately raises the question of where upcoming ETF issuers are supposed to find XRP once traditional liquidity channels start tightening.
ETFs Have Only a Few Options to buy $XRP, And Escrow Isn’t One of Them: Analyst. pic.twitter.com/xLRjTb6urA
— TheCryptoBasic (@thecryptobasic) November 28, 2025
Ripple’s Escrow Isn’t an Option for ETFs
Adding to the debate, Chad Steingraber reminded everyone why ETF issuers can’t simply buy XRP straight from Ripple’s massive escrow.
It all goes back to the 2023 Ripple–SEC ruling, where the court said Ripple’s direct institutional sales under contracts were unregistered securities offerings. Programmatic sales on exchanges were fine, but institutional deals remain restricted.
Ripple did receive a special waiver allowing it to raise capital privately from accredited investors, but that doesn’t give it the green light to sell XRP directly to ETFs. That means Ripple’s 34.7 billion XRP in escrow, plus another 5 billion it holds internally is effectively off-limits.
Read Also: Binance’s XRP Reserves Collapse – Here’s What This Could Trigger Next
Why Analysts Think a Supply Crunch Is Coming
If ETFs can’t tap Ripple’s reserves, they’re left with only a few practical options: major exchanges, whatever’s left in OTC and dark pools, and regular secondary-market sellers.
Analysts say this funnel is already tightening. Jake Claver noted that ETFs are burning through OTC and dark-pool supply much faster than anyone expected, estimating that only 1–2 billion XRP were available privately when ETFs rolled out.
With ETF demand climbing and the liquid float shrinking, the idea of a supply shock is becoming harder to ignore. Claver even warned that XRP could see “crazy” price action if this trend continues.
For now, the XRP community is watching closely to see how quickly ETF demand starts to squeeze the market, and whether the long-talked-about supply crunch finally becomes reality.
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