Cardano has been called a lot of things, slow, overhyped, even boring. But if you dig into the numbers, you’ll see something most people are missing.
According to a new breakdown from Cheeky Crypto Unfiltered, Cardano’s fundamentals might be setting up one of the biggest surprises of the next bull run.
This isn’t another technical chart analysis. It’s a deep look at how supply, staking, and real on-chain growth could push ADA price toward $10 or more by 2026.
What you'll learn 👉
Pinned Supply and Massive ADA Staking
Cardano tokenomics tell a pretty clear story. There’s a maximum supply of 45 billion ADA, but only around 35.8 billion are in circulation right now. Out of that, roughly 21.2 billion ADA, that’s about 60%, are staked.
Read Also: Here’s Why This Analyst Refused to Sell His Cardano (ADA) During the Crash
So in reality, less than half of all ADA is actually available for trading. And while staking isn’t permanently locked, it shows how confident long-term holders are. When demand returns, the reduced liquidity could make price movements a lot more explosive.
The “Real” Tradable Supply Might Be Way Smaller
Cheeky Crypto goes even deeper. Once you remove both staked coins and those held by long-term holders (another 20–30%), the actual number of ADA available for active trading could drop to just 10-12 billion.
That’s a shockingly small pool when you think about the next bull run. If demand picks up like it did in 2021, there simply won’t be enough ADA to go around. That kind of scarcity could send prices soaring, way beyond what most people expect.
ADA Price Scenarios for 2026
Cheeky Crypto laid out several realistic paths for ADA’s future, depending on how the market performs:
| Scenario | Market Cap | Approx. ADA Price | Conditions |
| Conservative | $25B | ~$2.40 | bull market |
| Base Case | $60B | ~$5.13 | Normal cycle peak |
| Optimistic | $95B | ~$8–12 | Strong bull run |
| Blue Sky | $120B | ~$10.26 | Sustained adoption |
| AI Max Case | $150B | ~$12.82 | Perfect conditions |
The host’s personal take? Around $7 ADA sometime between 2026 and 2027, if everything lines up with a mid-cycle peak.
What’s Next for ADA
Cardano story has always been about long-term fundamentals, not hype. With so much of the supply staked, real scarcity in circulation, and a growing list of enterprise-focused projects, it might finally be ready for its breakout moment.
Whether it stops at $5 or pushes past $10, the setup for ADA price heading into 2026 looks stronger than most people realize. The real question is, will investors recognize it before it happens?
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