Cardano’s ADA is closing September on the back foot, trading around $0.79 after a slow bleed through most of the month. Traders are now watching the calendar as October begins in just a few days, asking the big question: will ADA finally catch a bid, or will sellers push it toward fresh lows?
To get a clearer picture, let’s break down what happened in August and September and what the latest indicators are saying.
What you'll learn 👉
Cardano Price action in August and September
August started strong. ADA climbed from the mid-$0.70s to touch just under $1.00, with several sharp rallies along the way. But by mid-August, the trend flipped. Each bounce met heavier selling, and the chart shifted into a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
September offered a brief recovery early in the month, carrying ADA back to the $0.94–$0.96 range, but momentum faded quickly. Sellers regained control, and by late September the price slid steadily to $0.78–$0.79, right above a key support line around $0.76 that was last defended in August.
CoinAnk’s triple RSI (6/12/24) shows the fast RSI buried in the mid-20s, while the slower lines hover in the mid-30s. That’s classic oversold territory. It means ADA could be due for a short-term bounce, but without a clean break above recent lower highs, the larger downtrend remains in play.
Longs vs. shorts
Futures positioning underscores the cautious mood. Net Longs have dropped to roughly –1.10 B, while Net Shorts have risen to around +1.06 B. In other words, traders are leaning short and reducing bullish bets.
This is bearish for now, but it also sets up the possibility of a squeeze. If ADA can reclaim key resistance levels, those shorts may rush to cover, fueling a stronger move upward.
Read also: Kaspa (KAS) vs Cardano (ADA): Which Crypto Is Better to Hold for 10 Years?
Open interest
Open interest has been flat, with only a +3 M delta in recent sessions. That suggests the selloff wasn’t driven by heavy new shorting, but more by position trimming. A pick-up in open interest alongside rising prices early in October would be a strong sign that fresh long positions are entering and shorts are starting to feel pressure.
October ADA price outlook
With just days to go before the new month, here’s the technical roadmap traders are watching:
- Key support: $0.76–$0.78. A decisive close below this range could quickly invite a test of $0.72–$0.73, with a deeper target near $0.70.
- First upside hurdle: $0.82–$0.84. Regaining this zone would hint that selling pressure is easing.
- Bullish confirmation: $0.86–$0.88. Clearing this shelf on strong volume would open a move toward $0.92–$0.95, and potentially $0.98–$1.00 later in the month.
The most likely scenario for October is a range trade between $0.76 and $0.95. Oversold RSI and heavy short positioning give bulls a chance for an early-month bounce into the mid-$0.80s, but the ADA price must reclaim $0.88 with solid volume to turn the tide.
If that happens, a rally toward $0.92–$0.95 is realistic. Failure to hold $0.76 would flip the script and put $0.70 back in view.
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