What would it take for Ripple price to continue to set new all-time highs this cycle? TheCryptoBasic shared a bold scenario on X, suggesting that XRP price could climb to $4.48 if the circulating supply drops sharply to around 40 billion tokens.
That would mark a big leap from its current level around $3 and spark fresh interest in a coin that has often divided opinions.
What you'll learn 👉
Why Supply Matters for XRP Price
Ripple’s tokenomics have always been a hot topic. With a circulating supply of about 59.14 billion XRP and a total supply close to 100 billion, critics often argue that too many tokens weigh down the price.
TheCryptoBasic noted that despite XRP’s deflationary mechanism, where tiny amounts are burned through transaction fees, the impact has been minimal. After more than a decade, only around 14.18 million tokens have been permanently removed.
This means XRP still carries one of the largest supplies in the market, a factor that keeps discussions alive about whether reducing it could give the Ripple price room to run.
The Supply Burn Debate Around Ripple
TheCryptoBasic highlighted how XRP supporters often look to Ripple’s massive escrow holdings as the main lever for a supply shock. Ripple controls around 35.6 billion XRP in escrow, worth over $100 billion at today’s prices.
Some in the community believe burning those tokens could catapult XRP into a new era, pointing to Stellar’s past decision to burn half of its supply.
Meanwhile, the XRP community has frequently speculated about potential initiatives that could reduce the available supply. These discussions were widespread when XRP was significantly underperforming at around $0.50.
— TheCryptoBasic (@thecryptobasic) August 19, 2025
Now that the token is trading above $3, such calls have vastly…
However, Ripple CTO David Schwartz has long argued that an escrow burn would be ineffective. According to him, the tokens are not new to circulation, they were already issued and later locked. Releasing or burning them doesn’t change underlying demand, and therefore may not lift the XRP price as much as people hope.
The Hypothetical Path to $4.48
TheCryptoBasic outlined a simple calculation: if XRP’s market cap remains near $179 billion and circulating supply falls to 40 billion, the Ripple price could theoretically hit $4.48. That would surpass its old highs and put XRP in the spotlight again.
The problem is execution. To cut supply that drastically, Ripple and other large holders would need to burn billions of dollars worth of their assets.
It is a gamble most analysts consider unlikely. Meanwhile, organic token burns from transactions remain too small to make a dent, especially compared to the 99.98 billion total supply.
Why This Ripple Price Story Feels Familiar
The idea of a supply-driven rally isn’t new in crypto. Other projects like Stellar tried it, but the result was underwhelming. Stellar burned about half its tokens, yet XLM’s price barely budged in the long run. That comparison is often used to argue that supply alone cannot drive demand.
For XRP, it may take more than a burn to fuel the next rally. Adoption, utility, and new use cases on the XRP Ledger are the factors that may sustain a higher valuation.
Read Also: Worldcoin (WLD) Price Flashes Warning Signs: The Beginning of the Next Big Drop?
Still, the scenario laid out by TheCryptoBasic makes for an interesting thought experiment, showing just how much tokenomics can capture attention in the market.
TheCryptoBasic’s analysis is clear: if supply shrinks to 40 billion, XRP price could touch $4.48. Yet the road to that level looks steep. Transaction burns are slow, Ripple is unlikely to torch its escrow, and the sheer scale of supply makes it hard to engineer such a shock.
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