A cryptocurrency analyst broke down why Kaspa (KAS) might be significantly overvalued right now, pouring cold water on dreams of reaching the coveted $1 mark anytime soon. The analyst, who is the face behind the YouTube channel, Crypto MindSet, didn’t mince words when assessing the current state of this popular crypto asset.
The analyst points out a crucial mistake many Kaspa enthusiasts are making—they’re only looking at linear price charts. When you switch to a logarithmic scale, the picture becomes much clearer. Kaspa is still up a staggering 28,000% from its 2022 lows. That’s a 280x return, and it reached a mind-blowing 1,000% gain at its recent peak of around $0.20.
“People get it all wrong when they expect Kaspa to go straight up to $5 or $10,” the analyst explains. These moon-shot predictions floating around social media simply don’t align with market reality. The expert firmly believes Kaspa won’t even break the $1 mark in 2025, which might disappoint many hopeful investors.
What you'll learn 👉
Kaspa Is Technically in a Bear Market Right Now
The charts don’t lie. Kaspa is currently trading below both its 50-week moving average and its 200-day moving average. A death cross formed back in October—a technical signal that typically confirms a bear market is underway.
Looking ahead, the analyst’s most likely scenario sees Kaspa remaining in this bear market throughout 2025. If current trends continue, the price could potentially slide to around $0.03 by the end of 2025 before finally bottoming out and starting a fresh bull cycle.
What really matters isn’t the specific price target, but finding the next accumulation range. That’s where smart money is made—buying during consolidation phases rather than chasing downtrends or buying market tops. The analyst emphasizes this point repeatedly: patient investors who accumulate during sideways price action tend to reap the biggest rewards.
This Isn’t Your Typical Crypto Top Formation
What makes Kaspa particularly interesting is its unusual topping pattern. The cryptocurrency formed a top over approximately 15 months, from November to February. The analyst, drawing on eight years of crypto trading experience, describes it as “one of the most beautiful but nastiest and longer tops” they’ve ever witnessed in cryptocurrency.
Based on historical patterns and this extended topping phase, the analyst expects a minimum of one year of downside or sideways action before Kaspa might establish a new uptrend. The correction could stretch even longer.
The expert notes they’ve been warning followers about Kaspa’s downside risks for months, highlighting several red flags including the death cross, issues with the KRC token, and even the much-anticipated Kraken listing—all events that ultimately coincided with price declines.
What Realistic Scenarios Look Like for 2025
While maintaining a primarily bearish outlook, the analyst does acknowledge an alternative possibility. If Bitcoin manages to bottom out in 2025 and begin another bull run to new all-time highs, Kaspa might follow suit. However, the analyst considers this less likely given the extended top formation we’ve just witnessed.
Rather than chasing specific price predictions, the analyst suggests watching for a sustained sideways trading range. This could form between $0.01-0.02, $0.03-0.05, or at another level entirely. Once price action stabilizes into this pattern, that’s when the analyst plans to start accumulating for a multi-year hold.
Read Also: Onyxcoin (XCN) Price Prediction for Today, March 15
For traders looking for more immediate signals, the expert offers one clear technical indicator to watch: a break above the 200-day moving average would suggest a potential bottom is forming. This would be enough for the analyst to reconsider their bearish stance.
Until then, the message is clear—Kaspa remains in a technical bear market with limited upside potential for 2025. Those $1 predictions floating around might need to be put on ice for now.
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