XRP price has given back most of its latest recovery, and analyst CasiTrades believes the failure near $1.30 may have been more important than it first appeared.
XRP is trading around $1.22-$1.24 after falling roughly 6% over the past 24 hours as the broader crypto market sells off again. Bitcoin has dropped back toward $76,000, Ether is near $2,240, and more than $1 billion of leveraged crypto positions were liquidated during the latest risk-off move.
For XRP, CasiTrades believes the decline may now be taking price toward the final stage of a larger corrective structure.
Her main target remains around $1.10.
What you'll learn 👉
Why the $1.30 XRP Bounce Failed the Test
We regularly cover CasiTrades because her setups are built around specific Fibonacci levels and clear conditions that can confirm or invalidate the idea.
Her latest one-hour chart shows the XRP price bouncing from the low-$1.20s and briefly pushing toward the $1.30-$1.32 region.
That initially looked constructive.
But the recovery did not extend.
CasiTrades interprets the bounce as a three-wave move, which in Elliott Wave analysis is more consistent with a corrective rally than the start of a new impulsive advance.
Price then reversed hard.
That failure is the key part of her argument.
Instead of building above $1.30, XRP dropped back through the $1.26 support area, putting the bearish structure back in control.
$1.125 Could Be the First XRP Target
The chart shows several Fibonacci levels beneath current price.
The first major downside area is approximately $1.1236, which CasiTrades rounds to a $1.125 target.
She expects that area could produce a temporary pause or bounce.
From approximately $1.24, reaching $1.125 would mean another decline of around 9%.
But that is not the level she considers the most important.
Below it sits a much stronger cluster around $1.09-$1.10.
Her chart shows the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at roughly $1.0912, with another major Fibonacci level close to $1.0904.
That overlap is why $1.10 has become the main target for the potential completion of Wave 2.
Read also: Pro-XRP Lawyer Fires Back at Bitcoin Critic Over Ripple’s XRP Sales
Why RSI Could Be More Important Than Price at $1.10
The most interesting part of CasiTrades’ setup is what she wants to see when XRP gets there.
Not simply a touch of $1.10.
She wants bullish RSI divergence.
The RSI on her chart has already fallen toward 25, putting short-term momentum deep into oversold territory.
Bullish divergence would occur if XRP makes another lower price low near $1.10, but RSI forms a higher low.
That would mean price is still falling, but the strength behind the selling is weakening.
For her Elliott Wave count, that would be a much stronger sign that the Wave 2 correction is finishing.
Without that divergence, XRP could still continue lower.
Her chart even shows a much deeper support area around $0.87, although that is not her primary scenario at this stage.
XRP Is Also Fighting a Weak Crypto Market
The timing is important because XRP is not falling alone.
Bitcoin has lost its post-election rebound and returned toward $76,000 as the AI-stock selloff spread across risk markets. More than $1 billion of leveraged crypto positions were wiped out as bullish traders were forced to exit.
That broader weakness makes it easier for XRP to extend toward lower technical targets.
It also explains why the move from $1.30 back toward $1.22 happened so quickly.
For now, CasiTrades’ roadmap is relatively simple.
Losing $1.26 keeps the $1.125 target active.
If that area fails, the $1.09-$1.10 Fibonacci cluster becomes the main zone to watch.
The bullish signal would not simply be XRP reaching $1.10. It would be XRP reaching that area while momentum begins improving underneath the surface.
That is the point where a bearish move could start turning into a much more interesting long-term setup.
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