2025 didn’t move in a straight line. It lurched from one extreme to another and never really paid anyone back for the risk. The year opened still riding the tail end of 2024, with the market sitting near $3.5 trillion and Bitcoin hovering just below six figures.
Then came a sharp first-quarter sell-off. The Bitcoin price dropped to around $80,000 by mid-April, while the total market cap dropped to $2.4 trillion. The money rushed back to BTC while the altcoins were bleeding.
A recovery led by Bitcoin continued into mid-year, seeing BTC rise above $100,000.
But despite all the right conditions for a sustained bull market, momentum never fully returned. That disconnect is what has left traders confused and frustrated.
Ran Neuner summed it up bluntly in a recent post, saying it’s time to admit that something feels structurally broken in crypto. On paper, 2025 should have been a textbook bull year. In reality, price action never lined up with the narrative.
Look at the checklist. Liquidity was there. The U.S. government shifted to a more crypto-friendly stance. ETFs were live and pulling in steady inflows.
Michael Saylor was buying Bitcoin at a pace of roughly $1 billion a week. Nation states and sovereign funds were entering the conversation. Traditional markets like gold, silver, the Nasdaq, and the Russell 2000 all pushed to new highs.
Crypto had scale. It had infrastructure. It had institutional access. And yet, by the end of 2025, the market was trading lower than many expected, barely 20% above levels seen during the prior administration.
That’s the part that doesn’t sit right. In past cycles, even a fraction of these tailwinds would have sparked aggressive upside. Instead, price kept stalling, rolling over, or correcting just as momentum started to build.
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The First Quarter Damage Set the Tone For THe Crypto Market
The February to April drawdown did more than just knock prices lower. It changed behavior. When pressure showed up, money didn’t scatter. It ran straight into Bitcoin. Dominance pushed past 60% as altcoins were left behind and traders parked capital in the only place that still felt solid.
Nothing actually “broke.” No headline, no sudden shock. Selling just kept showing up day after day, quiet but persistent.
No exchange collapse. No regulatory shock. It was slow, steady selling. Funds reduced exposure. Leverage was trimmed. Risk appetite quietly disappeared.
That kind of move usually happens late in a cycle, not at the start of a year packed with bullish catalysts. From that point on, the market never really felt confident again.
Late April through July brought relief, but it was narrow. Then, Bitcoin price stabilized once again. It moved back above $100,000 and began to push towards $110,000. Market cap moved along, inching back above $3.4 trillion, despite the market not fully recovering.
Under the surface, it was a one-asset story. ETFs, corporate treasuries, and large funds accumulated BTC. Altcoins stayed heavy. Retail participation remained muted. Volume outside of Bitcoin never truly expanded.
This wasn’t exciting. It was a selective allocation. Capital went where it felt safest, not where returns were potentially highest.
Next came August and September. The Bitcoin price made new highs close to $120,000. Total market cap approached $4 trillion. The Altcoin Season Index climbed toward 78, and for a moment, it looked like the market was finally behaving the way people expected all year.
By October, the market rolled over again. Leverage flushed out. Total market cap fell from around $4.28 trillion back toward $3 trillion. Sentiment slipped into fear and stayed there. Instead of continuation, traders got another deep reset.
This is where the frustration peaked. All the ingredients were still there, but price refused to cooperate.
IT’S TIME TO ACKNOWLEDGE AND ADMIT THE CRYPTO MARKET IS BROKEN!
— Ran Neuner (@cryptomanran) December 16, 2025
At some point we need to admit that something is structurally broken in the crypto market!
2025 was a year with all the necessities for a bull market.
We had liquidity,
We had a pro-crypto US government.
We had…
So What is Actually Broken in Crypto?
Ran Neuner laid out two possibilities. Either there’s a seller the market hasn’t fully identified yet, or crypto is setting up for a violent catch-up move.
The first theory revolves around trapped liquidity. Early institutional buyers, private funds, or long-dated holders may be using every rally to exit quietly.
Not enough to crash the market, but enough to cap upside. If that’s true, it explains why strength keeps fading just as momentum builds.
The second theory is simpler, and arguably more uncomfortable. Markets can stay disconnected longer than people expect, but they don’t stay disconnected forever. If crypto truly has all the tailwinds people claim, then price may be storing pressure rather than releasing it.
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Why This Still Matters Going Into 2026
The strange part about 2025 isn’t just that price disappointed. It’s disappointing while fundamentals improved.
Infrastructure expanded. Regulation became clearer. Institutional access widened. Real adoption continued in the background. Yet price behaved as if none of that mattered.
That tension doesn’t resolve quietly. Either the market uncovers what’s been weighing on it, or it snaps back toward where it “should” be. History suggests it rarely stays stuck in between.
For now, confidence remains cautious. Not bearish, not euphoric. Just uneasy. But if there’s one thing the crypto market has proven across cycles, it’s that long periods of confusion tend to end with clarity – one way or the other.
As Ran put it, the market will soon show what actually broke. Or it will deliver the kind of catch-up move that makes this entire year look obvious in hindsight.
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